Cuiaba 0-0 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cuiaba face Atletico Goianiense.

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Fixture Analysis

Cuiaba welcome Atletico Goianiense to Arena Pantanal in Serie A (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 22 June 2024 at 23:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Cuiaba have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Cuiaba at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Atletico Goianiense — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Atletico Goianiense's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Cuiaba) versus 1.40 (Atletico Goianiense). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Cuiaba have won 1, Atletico Goianiense 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 21 Aug 2022, ended Cuiaba 1–1 Atletico Goianiense — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Atletico Goianiense in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 34% versus Atletico Goianiense 66%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 40% | Atletico Goianiense 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.10 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.994 / defence 0.976 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.892 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.116. Data: built from Cuiaba's last 48 games and Atletico Goianiense's last 10.

Result probabilities: Cuiaba 38% | Draw 31% | Atletico Goianiense 31%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.66 | Draw 3.19 | Atletico Goianiense 3.22. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cuiaba 30% (last 10 home games) | Atletico Goianiense 80% (last 10 away games).

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