Cuiaba 2-1 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Cuiaba take on America Mineiro.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Pantanal plays host to Cuiaba versus America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Thursday 29 September 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Cuiaba (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's home record at Arena Pantanal: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Pantanal. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cuiaba are significantly better at Arena Pantanal than their overall form suggests.
America Mineiro have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
America Mineiro's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. America Mineiro are 1.30 PPG clear of Cuiaba in recent Serie A fixtures (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Cuiaba have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, America Mineiro in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cuiaba lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2022, ended 1–2 with America Mineiro winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Cuiaba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
America Mineiro goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 42% versus America Mineiro 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 28% | America Mineiro 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.76 xG and America Mineiro 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.713 / defence 0.822 | America Mineiro attack 0.764 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 0.896. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Cuiaba games / 65 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 36% | Draw 39% | America Mineiro 24%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.78 | Draw 2.56 | America Mineiro 4.17. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 15% | BTTS probability 23% | Total xG 1.32. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 85% probability — total xG of 1.32 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 77% — America Mineiro's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 23%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.32 combined xG gives a 15% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 23%. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 30% | America Mineiro 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Sep 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 36% | Draw 39% | America Mineiro 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 15% | BTTS 23% | xG Cuiaba 0.76 / America Mineiro 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.713 / def 0.822 | America Mineiro attack 0.764 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.318 / away 0.896 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.56
America Mineiro xG
23%
BTTS
38%
Over 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs America Mineiro kick off?
Cuiaba vs America Mineiro kicked off at 01:00 on Thursday 29 September 2022 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs America Mineiro?
Cuiaba 2 - 1 America Mineiro.
Where is Cuiaba vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs America Mineiro part of?
Cuiaba vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 36% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 24% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 23% probability that both Cuiaba and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 15%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and America Mineiro?
Record (3 meetings): Cuiaba 0W | Draws 1 | America Mineiro 2W.
What form are Cuiaba and America Mineiro in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. America Mineiro (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against America Mineiro's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. Flip it around — America Mineiro's attack (0.76x) against Cuiaba's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.56.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 28.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.8%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 60% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.75
39%
2.54
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
26.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
20.2%
Home win
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.32
0.56
America Mineiro xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.54
39%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
38%
Over 1.5
2.63
62%
Under 1.5
1.61
15%
Over 2.5
6.67
85%
Under 2.5
1.18
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
23%
BTTS Yes
4.36
77%
BTTS No
1.30
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
11%
8.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26.6 | 15.0 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.2 | 11.4 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 28.1%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.56 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 1.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cuiaba come into this having played 65 games, going 16W 26D 23L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, America Mineiro sit at 1.42 PPG from 65 outings (24W 20D 21L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Cuiaba against 1.42 for America Mineiro. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cuiaba's home form reads 10W 13D 9L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, America Mineiro have taken 1.00 points per game from 32 outings (7W 11D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of America Mineiro's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cuiaba are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 0.98 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
America Mineiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 16W 26D 23L in their last 65 games (1.14 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 24W 20D 21L in their last 65 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or America Mineiro away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.34 PPG; America Mineiro away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or America Mineiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, America Mineiro in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cuiaba
2
Draws
2
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and America Mineiro?
From 6 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 2, America Mineiro have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when Cuiaba 2-2 America Mineiro.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 41%, America Mineiro 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Cuiaba and 25% for America Mineiro.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cuiaba have failed to score in 34% of games; America Mineiro in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 41% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Cuiaba's recent games and 25% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cuiaba edge out America Mineiro 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat America Mineiro 2-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.76 xG and America Mineiro 0.56 xG, a combined 1.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cuiaba beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.71 / defence 0.82 against America Mineiro attack 0.76 / defence 0.81, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 36% | Draw 39% | America Mineiro 24%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 15%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 38% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 23% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 28%, America Mineiro 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
America Mineiro's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.14 PPG, America Mineiro 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.