Cruzeiro 0-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cruzeiro vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Fluminense travel to Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto to take on Cruzeiro. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cruzeiro stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cruzeiro's home record at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fluminense — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Fluminense's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cruzeiro 1.90 PPG, Fluminense 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Cruzeiro, 3 for Fluminense and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2025, ended 2–0 with Cruzeiro winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cruzeiro in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Fluminense in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 44% versus Fluminense 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cruzeiro 43% | Fluminense 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.85 xG and Fluminense 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 1.102 / defence 0.936 | Fluminense attack 0.917 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 0.974. Data: 70 Cruzeiro games / 70 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 61% | Draw 22% | Fluminense 16%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Fluminense 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Cruzeiro (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cruzeiro as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cruzeiro 70% | Fluminense 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 61% | Draw 22% | Fluminense 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Cruzeiro 1.85 / Fluminense 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 1.102 / def 0.936 | Fluminense attack 0.917 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.399 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Fluminense xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Fluminense kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Fluminense kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?
Cruzeiro 0 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Fluminense part of?
Cruzeiro vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 61% chance of winning, Fluminense a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cruzeiro and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Fluminense?
Record (5 meetings): Cruzeiro 2W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 3W.
What form are Cruzeiro and Fluminense in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Fluminense (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cruzeiro's attack at 1.10x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Cruzeiro's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.50
16%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.68
0.84
Fluminense xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
6.06
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
3%
38.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.84 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cruzeiro's recent record stands at 32W 19D 19L from 70 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 27W 15D 28L across 70 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cruzeiro on 1.64 PPG, Fluminense on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cruzeiro have managed 22W 7D 6L from 35 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Cruzeiro are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fluminense's away record stands at 8W 6D 21L across 35 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cruzeiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.01 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Fluminense in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cruzeiro and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 32W 19D 19L in their last 70 games (1.64 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 27W 15D 28L in their last 70 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Fluminense away?
Cruzeiro's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 2.09 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Fluminense in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cruzeiro and Fluminense runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 31 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cruzeiro's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Cruzeiro
2
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Fluminense?
From 7 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 2, Fluminense have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Cruzeiro 1-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 60%, Fluminense 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Cruzeiro) and 31% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Fluminense in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cruzeiro play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 37% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cruzeiro vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 31% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and Fluminense tend to score early?
Cruzeiro have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cruzeiro's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro and Fluminense finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.85 xG and Fluminense 0.84 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cruzeiro fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Fluminense landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against Fluminense attack 0.92 / defence 1.20, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 61% | Draw 22% | Fluminense 16%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 43%, Fluminense 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fluminense's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cruzeiro 1.64 PPG, Fluminense 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.