Criciuma 2-5 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Criciuma at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Criciuma vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Cuiaba travel to Estádio Heriberto Hülse to take on Criciuma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 June 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cuiaba stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cuiaba's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Criciuma 1.15 xG and Cuiaba 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Criciuma attack 0.864 / defence 1.238 | Cuiaba attack 0.829 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.111. Data: 4 Criciuma games / 44 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Criciuma 35% | Draw 30% | Cuiaba 35%. Fair-value odds: Criciuma 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Cuiaba 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Criciuma vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Heriberto Hülse • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jun 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Criciuma 35% | Draw 30% | Cuiaba 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Criciuma 1.15 / Cuiaba 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Criciuma attack 0.864 / def 1.238 | Cuiaba attack 0.829 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Criciuma xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Cuiaba xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Criciuma vs Cuiaba kick off?
Criciuma vs Cuiaba kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 9 June 2024 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What was the final score in Criciuma vs Cuiaba?
Criciuma 2 - 5 Cuiaba.
Where is Criciuma vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What competition is Criciuma vs Cuiaba part of?
Criciuma vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Criciuma vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Criciuma a 35% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Criciuma and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Criciuma vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Cuiaba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Criciuma and Cuiaba in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Cuiaba away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Criciuma's attack rating (0.86) and Cuiaba's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Criciuma's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Criciuma Win
35%
2.85
30%
3.31
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Criciuma xG
Total xG
2.29
1.14
Cuiaba xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Criciuma vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Criciuma and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Criciuma and 1.14 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Criciuma vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Criciuma
Pre-Season
Cuiaba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Criciuma and Cuiaba runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Criciuma
0
Draws
2
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Cuiaba?
From 2 meetings on record, Criciuma have won 0, Cuiaba have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Criciuma and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2024, when Cuiaba 2-1 Criciuma.
Who has won more matches between Criciuma and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Criciuma home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Cuiaba run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Criciuma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Criciuma 2-5 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Criciuma 1.15 xG and Cuiaba 1.14 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Criciuma beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cuiaba outscored their 1.14 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Criciuma attack 0.86 / defence 1.24 against Cuiaba attack 0.83 / defence 1.15, drawn from 4/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Criciuma 35% | Draw 30% | Cuiaba 35%, with Criciuma to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.