Coritiba 1-0 Remo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Remo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Remo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 6 as Coritiba welcome Remo to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 March 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.15 xG and Remo 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.601 / defence 1.119 | Remo attack 0.998 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.155. Coritiba's attack strength of 0.601 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Remo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Coritiba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Coritiba games / 5 Remo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 33% | Draw 28% | Remo 39%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Remo 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Remo as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Remo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Remo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 33% | Draw 28% | Remo 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Coritiba 1.15 / Remo 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.601 / def 1.119 | Remo attack 0.998 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Remo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Remo xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Remo kick off?
Coritiba vs Remo kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Remo?
Coritiba 1 - 0 Remo.
Where is Coritiba vs Remo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Remo part of?
Coritiba vs Remo is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Remo?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 33% chance of winning, Remo a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Remo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Remo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Coritiba and Remo will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Remo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Remo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coritiba and Remo in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.60) and Remo's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Remo's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Remo Win
33%
3.07
28%
3.58
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.44
1.29
Remo xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
9%
11.15
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Remo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Remo expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.29 for Remo, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Remo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Remo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Coritiba
0
Draws
0
Remo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Remo?
From 2 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 2, Remo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Remo last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Remo 2-3 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Remo?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Remo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Coritiba defy the odds to beat Remo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Remo 1-0 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.15 xG and Remo 1.29 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Remo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.60 / defence 1.12 against Remo attack 1.00 / defence 1.29, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 33% | Draw 28% | Remo 39%, with Remo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Coritiba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.