Coritiba 3-2 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 17 as Coritiba welcome Bahia to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 May 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Bahia — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bahia away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Coritiba, 2 for Bahia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 2–4 with Bahia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.27 xG and Bahia 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.811 / defence 1.008 | Bahia attack 1.038 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.130. Data: 16 Coritiba games / 53 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 38% | Draw 28% | Bahia 34%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Bahia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coritiba are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Monday 25 May 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 38% | Draw 28% | Bahia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Coritiba 1.27 / Bahia 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.811 / def 1.008 | Bahia attack 1.038 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Bahia xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Bahia kick off?
Coritiba vs Bahia kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 25 May 2026 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Bahia?
Coritiba 3 - 2 Bahia.
Where is Coritiba vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Bahia part of?
Coritiba vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 38% chance of winning, Bahia a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Coritiba and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Bahia?
Record (2 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 0 | Bahia 2W.
What form are Coritiba and Bahia in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Bahia away split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.81) and Bahia's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
38%
2.63
28%
3.55
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.46
1.18
Bahia xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.18 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Bahia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coritiba's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Coritiba
0
Draws
2
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Bahia?
From 3 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Bahia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Coritiba 3-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Bahia?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Coritiba edge out Bahia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Bahia 3-2 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.27 xG and Bahia 1.18 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Coritiba beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bahia outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.81 / defence 1.01 against Bahia attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 16/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 38% | Draw 28% | Bahia 34%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.