Corinthians 1-1 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Corinthians at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs Sao Paulo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Corinthians host Sao Paulo at Neo Química Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Corinthians have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Neo Química Arena, Corinthians have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Neo Química Arena. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Corinthians are significantly better at Neo Química Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sao Paulo — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Sao Paulo's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Corinthians at 1.60 PPG versus Sao Paulo's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Corinthians have won 0, Sao Paulo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Sao Paulo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Corinthians trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Sao Paulo trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 50% versus Sao Paulo 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Corinthians 34% | Sao Paulo 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.60 xG and Sao Paulo 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 1.088 / defence 0.827 | Sao Paulo attack 1.011 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 0.911. Data: 44 Corinthians games / 44 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 57% | Draw 25% | Sao Paulo 18%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Sao Paulo 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Corinthians (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Corinthians as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Corinthians 50% | Sao Paulo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 57% | Draw 25% | Sao Paulo 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Corinthians 1.60 / Sao Paulo 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 1.088 / def 0.827 | Sao Paulo attack 1.011 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.341 / away 0.911 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Sao Paulo xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Corinthians 1 - 1 Sao Paulo.
Where is Corinthians vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Sao Paulo part of?
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 57% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Corinthians and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Sao Paulo?
Record (1 meetings): Corinthians 0W | Draws 0 | Sao Paulo 1W.
What form are Corinthians and Sao Paulo in?
Corinthians (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Corinthians's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Sao Paulo's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Sao Paulo's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
57%
1.74
25%
4.01
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.36
0.76
Sao Paulo xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
4%
27.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.5 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.76 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Corinthians's recent record stands at 15W 12D 11L from 38 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Sao Paulo, meanwhile, have gone 11W 15D 12L across 38 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Corinthians on 1.50 PPG, Sao Paulo on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Corinthians have managed 10W 5D 4L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sao Paulo's away record stands at 4W 6D 9L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Corinthians are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 0.82 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Sao Paulo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Current Season
Sao Paulo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 15W 12D 11L in their last 38 games (1.50 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 11W 15D 12L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Sao Paulo away?
Corinthians's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.84 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Corinthians go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Corinthians's record when hosting Sao Paulo specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Corinthians
4
Draws
4
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Sao Paulo?
From 10 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 2, Sao Paulo have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Corinthians 3-2 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sao Paulo see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 63%, Sao Paulo 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Corinthians and 21% for Sao Paulo.
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sao Paulo in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Sao Paulo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Corinthians's recent matches and 37% of Sao Paulo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Corinthians vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Corinthians's recent games and 21% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Corinthians and Sao Paulo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians and Sao Paulo finished level at 1-1 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.60 xG and Sao Paulo 0.76 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.09 / defence 0.83 against Sao Paulo attack 1.01 / defence 1.10, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 57% | Draw 25% | Sao Paulo 18%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 34%, Sao Paulo 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.50 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.