Chapecoense-sc 2-3 Remo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Remo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chapecoense-sc vs Remo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Remo make the trip to Arena Condá to face Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.40 xG and Remo 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.782 / defence 1.619 | Remo attack 0.841 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.102. Chapecoense-sc's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Remo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Chapecoense-sc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Chapecoense-sc games / 15 Remo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 35% | Draw 25% | Remo 40%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Remo 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Remo are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Remo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Remo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 35% | Draw 25% | Remo 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Chapecoense-sc 1.40 / Remo 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.782 / def 1.619 | Remo attack 0.841 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Remo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Remo xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Remo kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Remo kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Remo?
Chapecoense-sc 2 - 3 Remo.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Remo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Remo part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Remo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Remo?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 35% chance of winning, Remo a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Remo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Remo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Remo will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Remo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Remo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Remo in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chapecoense-sc's attack rating (0.78) and Remo's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Remo's attack (0.84x) against Chapecoense-sc's defence (1.62x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Remo Win
35%
2.85
25%
3.95
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.90
1.50
Remo xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
8%
12.80
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Remo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Remo expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.50 for Remo, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Remo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Remo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
0
Draws
1
Remo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Remo?
From 1 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Remo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Remo last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Chapecoense-sc 2-3 Remo.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Remo?
Remo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Remo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Remo edge out Chapecoense-sc 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Remo beat Chapecoense-sc 2-3 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 1.40 xG and Remo 1.50 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Remo outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.78 / defence 1.62 against Remo attack 0.84 / defence 1.22, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 35% | Draw 25% | Remo 40%, with Remo to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.