Chapecoense-sc 2-3 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chapecoense-sc vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 12 as Chapecoense-sc welcome Cuiaba to Arena Condá. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 July 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chapecoense-sc — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0W 1D 4L at Arena Condá — 0.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 0W 6D 3L from 9 outings — 0.67 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Cuiaba have posted 0W 4D 1L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chapecoense-sc at 0.40 PPG versus Cuiaba's 0.67. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Chapecoense-sc in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chapecoense-sc 67% versus Cuiaba 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chapecoense-sc 44% | Cuiaba 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 0.57 xG and Cuiaba 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.577 / defence 1.361 | Cuiaba attack 0.698 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 0.901 / away 1.045. Chapecoense-sc's attack strength of 0.577 is below the league average — the 0.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Chapecoense-sc games / 9 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 21% | Draw 35% | Cuiaba 45%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 4.76 | Draw 2.86 | Cuiaba 2.22. Cuiaba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.57. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.57 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Chapecoense-sc's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cuiaba are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 21% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 27%. Form rates corroborate: Chapecoense-sc 20% | Cuiaba 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 21% | Draw 35% | Cuiaba 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 27% | xG Chapecoense-sc 0.57 / Cuiaba 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.577 / def 1.361 | Cuiaba attack 0.698 / def 1.103 | league avg home 0.901 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.57
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Cuiaba xG
27%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Cuiaba kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Cuiaba kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Cuiaba?
Chapecoense-sc 2 - 3 Cuiaba.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Cuiaba part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 21% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 45% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Cuiaba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Cuiaba in?
Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 0W-6D-3L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chapecoense-sc's attack at 0.58x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Chapecoense-sc's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (19.2%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
21%
4.82
35%
2.89
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
20.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.57
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
1.57
0.99
Cuiaba xG
4.82
21%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.64
73%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
56%
1.78
Win to Nil
8%
13.00
25%
3.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.9 | 20.7 | 10.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.4%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 0.57 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 0.99 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chapecoense-sc come into this having played 9 games, going 0W 4D 5L for 0.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 0.67 PPG from 9 outings (0W 6D 3L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chapecoense-sc on 0.44 PPG, Cuiaba on 0.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chapecoense-sc's home form reads 0W 1D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (0W 4D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cuiaba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chapecoense-sc are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.78 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 4D 5L in their last 9 games (0.44 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 0W 6D 3L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chapecoense-sc at home or Cuiaba away?
Cuiaba's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chapecoense-sc at home: 0.25 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chapecoense-sc and Cuiaba runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Cuiaba?
From 2 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Cuiaba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2021, when Cuiaba 0-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chapecoense-sc tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chapecoense-sc 25%, Cuiaba 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Chapecoense-sc and 25% for Cuiaba.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba in 50%; Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in 75% of games; Cuiaba in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chapecoense-sc play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Chapecoense-sc's recent matches and 50% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chapecoense-sc vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Chapecoense-sc's recent games and 25% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chapecoense-sc and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Chapecoense-sc have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cuiaba edge out Chapecoense-sc 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Chapecoense-sc 2-3 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 0.57 xG and Cuiaba 0.99 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cuiaba outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.58 / defence 1.36 against Cuiaba attack 0.70 / defence 1.10, drawn from 11/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 21% | Draw 35% | Cuiaba 45%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chapecoense-sc 44%, Cuiaba 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Cuiaba's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chapecoense-sc 0.44 PPG, Cuiaba 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.