Chapecoense-sc 0-0 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chapecoense-sc host Corinthians at Arena Condá in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 March 2026 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Serie A games this season, Corinthians have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Corinthians have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chapecoense-sc, 2 for Corinthians and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Corinthians winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.46 xG and Corinthians 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 1.167 / defence 1.304 | Corinthians attack 0.897 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.115. Data: 5 Chapecoense-sc games / 44 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 41% | Draw 25% | Corinthians 34%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Corinthians 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chapecoense-sc are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chapecoense-sc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Friday 20 Mar 2026, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 41% | Draw 25% | Corinthians 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Chapecoense-sc 1.46 / Corinthians 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 1.167 / def 1.304 | Corinthians attack 0.897 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Chapecoense-sc (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Corinthians xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians kicked off at 00:30 on Friday 20 March 2026 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians?
Chapecoense-sc 0 - 0 Corinthians.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 41% chance of winning, Corinthians a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chapecoense-sc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians?
Record (2 meetings): Chapecoense-sc 0W | Draws 0 | Corinthians 2W.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians in?
Corinthians (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Corinthians away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chapecoense-sc's attack rating (1.17) and Corinthians's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Chapecoense-sc's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chapecoense-sc Win
41%
2.45
25%
3.94
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.76
1.30
Corinthians xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
8%
12.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.30 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Corinthians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chapecoense-sc's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draws
2
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians?
From 3 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Corinthians have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Chapecoense-sc 0-0 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Chapecoense-sc's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 7, as Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 1.46 xG and Corinthians 1.30 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Corinthians landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 1.17 / defence 1.30 against Corinthians attack 0.90 / defence 0.85, drawn from 5/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 41% | Draw 25% | Corinthians 34%, with Chapecoense-sc to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.