Ceara 1-0 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ceara at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ceara vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Ceara welcome Chapecoense-sc to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Ceara have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ceara have posted 5W 4D 1L at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ceara are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Chapecoense-sc — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Chapecoense-sc have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ceara carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ceara register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Chapecoense-sc in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ceara, 0 for Chapecoense-sc and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ceara trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Chapecoense-sc trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 50% versus Chapecoense-sc 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 35% | Chapecoense-sc 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.22 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 1.016 / defence 0.922 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.884 / defence 1.398. League average goals — home 0.857 / away 1.058. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.398 — this is suppressing Ceara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Ceara games / 21 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 42% | Draw 33% | Chapecoense-sc 24%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Chapecoense-sc 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ceara are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Ceara 60% | Chapecoense-sc 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 42% | Draw 33% | Chapecoense-sc 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Ceara 1.22 / Chapecoense-sc 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 1.016 / def 0.922 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.884 / def 1.398 | league avg home 0.857 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Ceara (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Chapecoense-sc xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Ceara vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Chapecoense-sc?
Ceara 1 - 0 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Ceara vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Ceara vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 42% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ceara and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Chapecoense-sc?
Record (1 meetings): Ceara 0W | Draws 1 | Chapecoense-sc 0W.
What form are Ceara and Chapecoense-sc in?
Ceara (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ceara's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Chapecoense-sc's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Chapecoense-sc's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
42%
2.36
33%
3.00
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.08
0.86
Chapecoense-sc xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
7%
13.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.8 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ceara and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Ceara and 0.86 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ceara's recent record stands at 5W 10D 5L from 20 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chapecoense-sc, meanwhile, have gone 1W 7D 12L across 20 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ceara by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chapecoense-sc heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ceara have managed 5W 4D 1L from 10 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Ceara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chapecoense-sc's away record stands at 1W 5D 4L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ceara are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 0.85 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc in 65%.
Defensively: Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Blended
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 5W 10D 5L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 7D 12L in their last 20 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Ceara's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.90 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Ceara or Chapecoense-sc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Chapecoense-sc in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ceara
1
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Chapecoense-sc?
From 2 meetings on record, Ceara have won 1, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2021, when Ceara 1-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Chapecoense-sc?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ceara at 60%, Chapecoense-sc at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ceara) and 50% (Chapecoense-sc).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Chapecoense-sc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ceara's games and 80% of Chapecoense-sc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ceara vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ceara's recent games and 50% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ceara edge out Chapecoense-sc 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara beat Chapecoense-sc 1-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.22 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.86 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chapecoense-sc landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.88 / defence 1.40, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 42% | Draw 33% | Chapecoense-sc 24%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 35%, Chapecoense-sc 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ceara arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Ceara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.