Ceara 0-0 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ceara at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ceara vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo plays host to Ceara versus America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Form
Ceara (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ceara's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
America Mineiro have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
America Mineiro away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Ceara, 1.80 for America Mineiro — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ceara 0W, America Mineiro 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with America Mineiro winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ceara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
America Mineiro goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 56% versus America Mineiro 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 42% | America Mineiro 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.23 xG and America Mineiro 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.988 / defence 1.052 | America Mineiro attack 0.978 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.003 / away 0.919. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Ceara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Ceara games / 36 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 43% | Draw 29% | America Mineiro 28%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | America Mineiro 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ceara as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ceara if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ceara 50% | America Mineiro 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 43% | Draw 29% | America Mineiro 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Ceara 1.23 / America Mineiro 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.988 / def 1.052 | America Mineiro attack 0.978 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.003 / away 0.919 • Poisson stance: Ceara (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.95
America Mineiro xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs America Mineiro kick off?
Ceara vs America Mineiro kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs America Mineiro?
Ceara 0 - 0 America Mineiro.
Where is Ceara vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs America Mineiro part of?
Ceara vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 43% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ceara and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and America Mineiro?
Record (1 meetings): Ceara 0W | Draws 0 | America Mineiro 1W.
What form are Ceara and America Mineiro in?
Ceara (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ceara's attack at 0.99x the league average against America Mineiro's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — America Mineiro's attack (0.98x) against Ceara's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.45
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.18
0.95
America Mineiro xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
8%
12.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ceara and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Ceara and 0.95 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ceara's recent record stands at 11W 16D 9L from 36 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five.
America Mineiro, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 11L across 36 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Ceara against 1.36 for America Mineiro. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ceara have managed 10W 6D 2L from 18 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Ceara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
America Mineiro's away record stands at 4W 7D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ceara are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 1.08 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Current Season
America Mineiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 11W 16D 9L in their last 36 games (1.36 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 12W 13D 11L in their last 36 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or America Mineiro away?
Ceara's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 2.00 PPG; America Mineiro away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Ceara or America Mineiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, America Mineiro in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ceara have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ceara
1
Draws
2
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and America Mineiro?
From 4 meetings on record, Ceara have won 1, America Mineiro have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Ceara 1-2 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and America Mineiro?
America Mineiro have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 56%, America Mineiro 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ceara) and 28% (America Mineiro).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; America Mineiro in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play America Mineiro?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Ceara's games and 56% of America Mineiro's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ceara vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ceara's recent games and 28% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ceara's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 37, as Ceara and America Mineiro drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.23 xG and America Mineiro 0.95 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ceara fell 1.2 short of their projected output. America Mineiro landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.99 / defence 1.05 against America Mineiro attack 0.98 / defence 1.25, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 43% | Draw 29% | America Mineiro 28%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 42%, America Mineiro 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
America Mineiro's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ceara 1.36 PPG, America Mineiro 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ceara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. America Mineiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.