Botafogo 1-2 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 29 as Botafogo welcome Vasco DA Gama to Estádio Nilton Santos. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 23:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Botafogo have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio Nilton Santos, Botafogo have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasco DA Gama stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Botafogo 1.00 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Botafogo register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Vasco DA Gama in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Botafogo: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Vasco DA Gama, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Botafogo winning.
The historical record gives Botafogo a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 51% versus Vasco DA Gama 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 52% | Vasco DA Gama 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.60 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.028 / defence 1.076 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.876 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.180. Data: 66 Botafogo games / 65 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 47% | Draw 29% | Vasco DA Gama 25%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Vasco DA Gama 4.00. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 80% | Vasco DA Gama 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 47% | Draw 29% | Vasco DA Gama 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Botafogo 1.60 / Vasco DA Gama 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.028 / def 1.076 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.876 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Vasco DA Gama xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 23:30 on Wednesday 7 October 2026 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Botafogo 1 - 2 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 47% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (7 meetings): Botafogo 5W | Draws 1 | Vasco DA Gama 1W.
What form are Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama in?
Botafogo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 1.03x the league average against Vasco DA Gama's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
47%
2.14
29%
3.47
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.71
1.11
Vasco DA Gama xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
5%
20.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.11 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Botafogo's recent record stands at 26W 19D 20L from 65 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 31L across 65 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Botafogo on 1.49 PPG, Vasco DA Gama on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Botafogo have managed 15W 11D 6L from 32 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 6W 7D 19L across 32 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Botafogo are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.37 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 26W 19D 20L in their last 65 games (1.49 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 21W 13D 31L in their last 65 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Botafogo's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.75 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 7 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2024, when Botafogo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Botafogo's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Botafogo
1
Draws
2
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama?
From 8 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 5, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2026, when Botafogo 1-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 62%, Vasco DA Gama 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Botafogo and 59% for Vasco DA Gama. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Vasco DA Gama?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Botafogo's games and 53% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Botafogo's matches and 59% of Vasco DA Gama's.
Do Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasco DA Gama defy the odds to beat Botafogo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Botafogo 1-2 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.60 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.11 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.03 / defence 1.08 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 47% | Draw 29% | Vasco DA Gama 25%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Vasco DA Gama win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 52%, Vasco DA Gama 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.49 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.