Botafogo 2-0 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Coritiba travel to Estádio Nilton Santos to take on Botafogo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Botafogo stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo's home record at Estádio Nilton Santos: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Coritiba have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Botafogo 1.00 PPG, Coritiba 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Botafogo have won 0, Coritiba 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Coritiba winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Botafogo in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Coritiba in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 42% versus Coritiba 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Botafogo 31% | Coritiba 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.21 xG and Coritiba 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.605 / defence 0.986 | Coritiba attack 0.838 / defence 1.558. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 0.895. Botafogo's attack strength of 0.605 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.558 — this is suppressing Botafogo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Botafogo games / 26 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 47% | Draw 30% | Coritiba 23%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Coritiba 4.35. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 20% | Coritiba 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 47% | Draw 30% | Coritiba 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Botafogo 1.21 / Coritiba 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.605 / def 0.986 | Coritiba attack 0.838 / def 1.558 | league avg home 1.287 / away 0.895 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Coritiba xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Coritiba kick off?
Botafogo vs Coritiba kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Coritiba?
Botafogo 2 - 0 Coritiba.
Where is Botafogo vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Coritiba part of?
Botafogo vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 47% chance of winning, Coritiba a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Botafogo and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Coritiba?
Record (1 meetings): Botafogo 0W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 1W.
What form are Botafogo and Coritiba in?
Botafogo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Coritiba (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 0.60x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 1.56x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.33
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Botafogo xG
Total xG
1.95
0.74
Coritiba xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
7%
14.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.74 for Coritiba, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Botafogo have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 8W 7D 11L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coritiba's form line: 8W 4D 14L from 26 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Botafogo on 1.19 PPG, Coritiba on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Botafogo have posted 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L).
On the road, Coritiba have gone 0W 2D 10L from 12 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Botafogo are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.08 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Coritiba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 8W 4D 14L in their last 26 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Coritiba away?
Botafogo's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.08 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when Botafogo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Botafogo's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Botafogo
2
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Coritiba?
From 5 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 2, Coritiba have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Botafogo 2-2 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Coritiba?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 33%, Coritiba 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Botafogo) and 58% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Botafogo have failed to score in 50% of games; Coritiba in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Botafogo's recent matches and 58% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Botafogo's recent games and 58% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Coritiba tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Coritiba 2-0 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.21 xG and Coritiba 0.74 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.60 / defence 0.99 against Coritiba attack 0.84 / defence 1.56, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 47% | Draw 30% | Coritiba 23%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 31%, Coritiba 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Coritiba's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.19 PPG, Coritiba 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.