Bahia 2-0 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bahia at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bahia vs Juventude encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bahia and Juventude meet at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 4 July 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bahia's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia at Arena Fonte Nova this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Juventude (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Juventude have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Bahia. A 0.80 PPG lead over Juventude (2.00 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bahia, 0 for Juventude and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Bahia — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Juventude — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bahia 75% and Juventude 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 67% | Juventude 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 2.23 xG and Juventude 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.182 / defence 0.865 | Juventude attack 0.905 / defence 1.399. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.078. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.399 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Bahia games / 12 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 68% | Draw 21% | Juventude 12%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.47 | Draw 4.76 | Juventude 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 50% | Juventude 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Jul 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 68% | Draw 21% | Juventude 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 52% | xG Bahia 2.23 / Juventude 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.182 / def 0.865 | Juventude attack 0.905 / def 1.399 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Bahia (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Juventude xG
52%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Juventude kick off?
Bahia vs Juventude kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 4 July 2024 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Juventude?
Bahia 2 - 0 Juventude.
Where is Bahia vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Juventude part of?
Bahia vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 68% chance of winning, Juventude a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bahia and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Juventude?
Record (2 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 1 | Juventude 0W.
What form are Bahia and Juventude in?
Bahia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Juventude (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.18) and Juventude's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.91x) against Bahia's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 51/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
68%
1.47
21%
4.87
12%
8.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Bahia xG
Total xG
3.08
0.84
Juventude xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
8.57
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
11%
9.33
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
1%
79.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Bahia and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Bahia and 0.84 for Juventude, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Juventude?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bahia's recent record stands at 7W 3D 2L from 12 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventude, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 4L across 12 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bahia by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juventude heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bahia have managed 6W 0D 0L from 6 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Juventude's away record stands at 0W 2D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juventude's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bahia are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 1.25 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bahia have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Juventude in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Juventude in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 7W 3D 2L in their last 12 games (2.00 PPG), while Juventude have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Juventude away?
Bahia's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 3.00 PPG; Juventude away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 28 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 3-0 on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bahia
2
Draws
1
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Juventude?
From 6 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Juventude have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 28 November 2025, when Juventude 1-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Juventude?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Bahia, 100% for Juventude — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bahia) and 67% (Juventude). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Juventude?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bahia's games and 100% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bahia vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bahia's matches and 67% of Juventude's.
Do Bahia and Juventude tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Juventude in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Juventude 2-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 2.23 xG and Juventude 0.84 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Juventude landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.18 / defence 0.86 against Juventude attack 0.91 / defence 1.40, drawn from 51/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 68% | Draw 21% | Juventude 12%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 67%, Juventude 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Juventude's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bahia arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.