Bahia 0-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 3 as Bahia welcome Internacional to Estádio Governador Roberto Santos. Kick-off is set for Monday 14 June 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 2.03 xG and Internacional 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.208 / defence 1.016 | Internacional attack 0.844 / defence 1.615. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.070. Internacional bring a strong defensive rating of 1.615 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Bahia games / 2 Internacional games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bahia 63% | Draw 21% | Internacional 16%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Internacional 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio Governador Roberto Santos • Kick-off: Monday 14 Jun 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 63% | Draw 21% | Internacional 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 52% | xG Bahia 2.03 / Internacional 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.208 / def 1.016 | Internacional attack 0.844 / def 1.615 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Bahia (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Internacional xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Internacional kick off?
Bahia vs Internacional kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 14 June 2021 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Internacional?
Bahia 0 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Bahia vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What competition is Bahia vs Internacional part of?
Bahia vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 63% chance of winning, Internacional a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bahia and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Internacional?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bahia and Internacional in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bahia's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Internacional's defensive record (1.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.86
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.95
0.92
Internacional xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
13%
7.64
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
2%
47.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Bahia and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Bahia and 0.92 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Internacional?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Pre-Season
Internacional
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bahia and Internacional runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bahia's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Bahia
2
Draws
4
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Internacional?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Internacional have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Internacional 0-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Internacional defy the odds to beat Bahia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Bahia 0-1 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 2.03 xG and Internacional 0.92 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bahia fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.21 / defence 1.02 against Internacional attack 0.84 / defence 1.61, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 63% | Draw 21% | Internacional 16%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Internacional win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.