Bahia 1-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 52%, yet in-form Fluminense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bahia vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bahia and Fluminense meet at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 February 2026 at 22:00 UTC.
Form
Bahia (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Fluminense have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Fluminense away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fluminense are 0.90 PPG clear of Bahia in recent Serie A fixtures (2.30 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Bahia, 4 for Fluminense and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Fluminense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Fluminense half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 54% versus Fluminense 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 51% | Fluminense 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.52 xG and Fluminense 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.038 / defence 0.883 | Fluminense attack 0.935 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.077. Data: 39 Bahia games / 39 Fluminense games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bahia 52% | Draw 26% | Fluminense 22%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Fluminense 4.55. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fluminense (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 30% | Fluminense 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Feb 2026, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 52% | Draw 26% | Fluminense 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Bahia 1.52 / Fluminense 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.038 / def 0.883 | Fluminense attack 0.935 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Bahia (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Fluminense xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Fluminense kick off?
Bahia vs Fluminense kicked off at 22:00 on Thursday 5 February 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Fluminense?
Bahia 1 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Bahia vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Fluminense part of?
Bahia vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 52% chance of winning, Fluminense a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bahia and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Fluminense?
Record (8 meetings): Bahia 3W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 4W.
What form are Bahia and Fluminense in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Fluminense (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.04) and Fluminense's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.94x) against Bahia's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.86
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.41
0.89
Fluminense xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
5%
20.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.2 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bahia and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Bahia and 0.89 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 76 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 32W 17D 27L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 31W 17D 28L from 76 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Bahia against 1.45 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bahia have posted 2.13 PPG from 38 outings (25W 6D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 9W 8D 21L from 38 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bahia are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.09 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 32W 17D 27L in their last 76 games (1.49 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 31W 17D 28L in their last 76 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Fluminense away?
Bahia's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.13 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Bahia or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fluminense in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bahia
3
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Fluminense have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2026, when Fluminense 0-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 42%, Fluminense 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bahia) and 32% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fluminense in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bahia's recent matches and 37% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bahia's recent games and 32% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Fluminense tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia and Fluminense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia and Fluminense finished level at 1-1 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.52 xG and Fluminense 0.89 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.04 / defence 0.88 against Fluminense attack 0.94 / defence 0.89, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 52% | Draw 26% | Fluminense 22%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 51%, Fluminense 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.49 PPG, Fluminense 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.