Bahia 1-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bahia at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bahia and Fluminense meet at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 31 October 2023 at 22:00 UTC.
Form
Bahia (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Fluminense have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Fluminense away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Bahia against 1.10 for Fluminense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bahia, 2 for Fluminense and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2023, ended 1–2 with Fluminense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Fluminense half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 47% versus Fluminense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 50% | Fluminense 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.86 xG and Fluminense 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.007 / defence 0.955 | Fluminense attack 0.830 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.093. Fluminense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Bahia games / 68 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 60% | Draw 24% | Fluminense 16%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Fluminense 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 50% | Fluminense 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 Oct 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 60% | Draw 24% | Fluminense 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Bahia 1.86 / Fluminense 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.007 / def 0.955 | Fluminense attack 0.830 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Bahia (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Fluminense xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Fluminense kick off?
Bahia vs Fluminense kicked off at 22:00 on Tuesday 31 October 2023 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Fluminense?
Bahia 1 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Bahia vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Fluminense part of?
Bahia vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 60% chance of winning, Fluminense a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bahia and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Fluminense?
Record (3 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 2W.
What form are Bahia and Fluminense in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Fluminense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.01) and Fluminense's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.83x) against Bahia's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.19
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.73
0.87
Fluminense xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
3%
39.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bahia and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Bahia and 0.87 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Fluminense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 9W 7D 14L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 13W 6D 11L from 30 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Bahia against 1.50 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bahia have posted 1.57 PPG from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 2W 2D 10L from 14 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bahia are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.40 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Fluminense away?
Bahia's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.57 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Bahia or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Fluminense in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bahia
3
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Fluminense have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2026, when Fluminense 0-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 64%, Fluminense 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Bahia) and 50% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fluminense in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Bahia's recent matches and 36% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Bahia's recent games and 50% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Fluminense tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out Fluminense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Fluminense 1-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.86 xG and Fluminense 0.87 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bahia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Fluminense landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.01 / defence 0.95 against Fluminense attack 0.83 / defence 1.31, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 60% | Draw 24% | Fluminense 16%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 50%, Fluminense 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Fluminense's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.13 PPG, Fluminense 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.