Bahia 1-2 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 17 as Bahia welcome Cuiaba to Arena Fonte Nova. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 July 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia at Arena Fonte Nova this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Bahia) versus 1.40 (Cuiaba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bahia, 1 for Cuiaba and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2023, ended 0–3 with Cuiaba winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bahia trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cuiaba trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 53% versus Cuiaba 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 53% | Cuiaba 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.53 xG and Cuiaba 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.162 / defence 0.779 | Cuiaba attack 1.139 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.073. Bahia's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Bahia games / 53 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 49% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 22%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Cuiaba 4.55. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bahia 50% | Cuiaba 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 49% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Bahia 1.53 / Cuiaba 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.162 / def 0.779 | Cuiaba attack 1.139 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Bahia (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Cuiaba xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Cuiaba kick off?
Bahia vs Cuiaba kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Cuiaba?
Bahia 1 - 2 Cuiaba.
Where is Bahia vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Cuiaba part of?
Bahia vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 49% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bahia and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Cuiaba?
Record (4 meetings): Bahia 0W | Draws 3 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are Bahia and Cuiaba in?
Bahia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.16) and Cuiaba's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.42
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.48
0.95
Cuiaba xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
5%
21.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bahia and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Bahia and 0.95 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bahia come into this having played 53 games, going 21W 11D 21L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.23 PPG from 53 outings (17W 14D 22L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.40 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bahia's home form reads 15W 5D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 1.35 points per game from 26 outings (10W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bahia are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 1.06 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 21W 11D 21L in their last 53 games (1.40 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 17W 14D 22L in their last 53 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Cuiaba away?
Bahia's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.92 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Bahia or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2023, when Cuiaba won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bahia's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Bahia
3
Draws
2
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Cuiaba?
From 6 meetings on record, Bahia have won 1, Cuiaba have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 54%, Cuiaba 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bahia) and 35% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cuiaba in 35%; Cuiaba in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bahia's recent matches and 35% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bahia's recent games and 35% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cuiaba defy the odds to beat Bahia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Bahia 1-2 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.53 xG and Cuiaba 0.95 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cuiaba outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.16 / defence 0.78 against Cuiaba attack 1.14 / defence 0.95, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 49% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 22%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Cuiaba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 53%, Cuiaba 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Cuiaba's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.40 PPG, Cuiaba 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.