Bahia 2-2 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as Bahia welcome Cruzeiro to Arena Fonte Nova. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 June 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bahia haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bahia have posted 5W 4D 1L at Arena Fonte Nova — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.15 xG and Cruzeiro 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.978 / defence 1.310 | Cruzeiro attack 1.306 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.087. Cruzeiro have an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Bahia games / 9 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 21% | Draw 27% | Cruzeiro 52%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Cruzeiro 1.92. Cruzeiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cruzeiro are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jun 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 21% | Draw 27% | Cruzeiro 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Bahia 1.15 / Cruzeiro 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.978 / def 1.310 | Cruzeiro attack 1.306 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Cruzeiro xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Bahia vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 10 June 2023 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Bahia 2 - 2 Cruzeiro.
Where is Bahia vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Cruzeiro part of?
Bahia vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 21% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bahia and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Cruzeiro?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bahia and Cruzeiro in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Bahia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bahia's attack at 0.98x the league average against Cruzeiro's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cruzeiro's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
21%
4.76
27%
3.67
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Bahia xG
Total xG
3.01
1.86
Cruzeiro xG
4.76
21%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
16%
6.42
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
3%
30.57
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bahia and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bahia and 1.86 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Pre-Season
Cruzeiro
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bahia and Cruzeiro runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cruzeiro have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2023, when Cruzeiro won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bahia's record when hosting Cruzeiro specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Bahia
2
Draws
4
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Cruzeiro?
From 7 meetings on record, Bahia have won 1, Cruzeiro have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Bahia and Cruzeiro share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 10, as Bahia and Cruzeiro drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.15 xG and Cruzeiro 1.86 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.98 / defence 1.31 against Cruzeiro attack 1.31 / defence 0.85, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 21% | Draw 27% | Cruzeiro 52%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.