Bahia 3-0 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Fonte Nova plays host to Bahia versus Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Monday 25 October 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bahia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia at Arena Fonte Nova this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Chapecoense-sc's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Chapecoense-sc have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Bahia against 0.70 for Chapecoense-sc. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bahia lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2021, ended 2–0 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bahia — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Chapecoense-sc — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 38% versus Chapecoense-sc 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 42% | Chapecoense-sc 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.43 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.992 / defence 1.271 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.896 / defence 1.570. League average goals — home 0.920 / away 1.030. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.570 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Bahia games / 27 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 41% | Draw 30% | Chapecoense-sc 29%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Chapecoense-sc 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 50% | Chapecoense-sc 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Monday 25 Oct 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 41% | Draw 30% | Chapecoense-sc 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Bahia 1.43 / Chapecoense-sc 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.992 / def 1.271 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.896 / def 1.570 | league avg home 0.920 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Bahia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Chapecoense-sc xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 25 October 2021 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Bahia 3 - 0 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 41% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bahia and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Chapecoense-sc?
Record (1 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 0 | Chapecoense-sc 0W.
What form are Bahia and Chapecoense-sc in?
Bahia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bahia's attack at 0.99x the league average against Chapecoense-sc's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.90x) against Bahia's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
41%
2.43
30%
3.37
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.61
1.17
Chapecoense-sc xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
7%
14.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bahia and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Bahia and 1.17 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bahia's recent record stands at 7W 7D 12L from 26 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chapecoense-sc, meanwhile, have gone 1W 10D 15L across 26 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bahia by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chapecoense-sc heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bahia have managed 4W 3D 5L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chapecoense-sc's away record stands at 1W 5D 6L across 12 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bahia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 0.92 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc in 69%.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 7W 7D 12L in their last 26 games (1.08 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 10D 15L in their last 26 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Bahia's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.25 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Bahia or Chapecoense-sc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Chapecoense-sc in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Bahia go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 3-0 on 25 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Bahia
0
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Chapecoense-sc?
From 3 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Bahia 2-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Chapecoense-sc?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bahia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 42%, Chapecoense-sc 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bahia) and 50% (Chapecoense-sc).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bahia have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Chapecoense-sc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Bahia's games and 75% of Chapecoense-sc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bahia's recent games and 50% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bahia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Chapecoense-sc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Chapecoense-sc 3-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.43 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.17 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chapecoense-sc landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.99 / defence 1.27 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.90 / defence 1.57, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 41% | Draw 30% | Chapecoense-sc 29%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 42%, Chapecoense-sc 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bahia arrived the stronger side — 1.08 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.