Bahia 0-0 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 41%, yet in-form Botafogo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bahia vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Fonte Nova plays host to Bahia versus Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 25 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bahia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia at Arena Fonte Nova this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Botafogo's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Botafogo have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Botafogo arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Bahia 1W, Botafogo 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Bahia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bahia — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Botafogo — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 52% versus Botafogo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 49% | Botafogo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.43 xG and Botafogo 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.057 / defence 0.859 | Botafogo attack 1.385 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.063. Botafogo have an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — the away xG of 1.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Bahia games / 61 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 41% | Draw 26% | Botafogo 33%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Botafogo 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bahia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Botafogo (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 40% | Botafogo 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 41% | Draw 26% | Botafogo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Bahia 1.43 / Botafogo 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.057 / def 0.859 | Botafogo attack 1.385 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Bahia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Botafogo xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Botafogo kick off?
Bahia vs Botafogo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Botafogo?
Bahia 0 - 0 Botafogo.
Where is Bahia vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Botafogo part of?
Bahia vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 41% chance of winning, Botafogo a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bahia and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Botafogo?
Record (3 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 0 | Botafogo 2W.
What form are Bahia and Botafogo in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Botafogo (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bahia's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (1.39x) against Bahia's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.81
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.69
1.26
Botafogo xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
8%
12.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Bahia and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Bahia and 1.26 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bahia come into this having played 61 games, going 23W 13D 25L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Botafogo sit at 1.80 PPG from 61 outings (32W 14D 15L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Botafogo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Bahia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bahia's home form reads 16W 6D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Botafogo have taken 1.50 points per game from 30 outings (12W 9D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bahia are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.62 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Botafogo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 23W 13D 25L in their last 61 games (1.34 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 32W 14D 15L in their last 61 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Botafogo away?
Bahia's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.80 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Bahia or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Botafogo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 3-0 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Botafogo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Bahia
1
Draws
3
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Botafogo?
From 7 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Botafogo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Bahia 2-1 Botafogo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 53%, Botafogo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bahia) and 47% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Botafogo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Bahia's games and 57% of Botafogo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bahia vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bahia's recent games and 47% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Botafogo tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bahia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia and Botafogo finished level at 0-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.43 xG and Botafogo 1.26 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bahia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Botafogo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.06 / defence 0.86 against Botafogo attack 1.39 / defence 1.02, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 41% | Draw 26% | Botafogo 33%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 49%, Botafogo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Botafogo's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.