Bahia 1-1 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bahia at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bahia and Atletico Paranaense meet at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bahia's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bahia's home record at Arena Fonte Nova: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Atletico Paranaense have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Atletico Paranaense have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Bahia, 1.00 for Atletico Paranaense — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Bahia, 1 for Atletico Paranaense and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2024, ended 3–1 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Atletico Paranaense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 53% versus Atletico Paranaense 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 51% | Atletico Paranaense 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.32 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.897 / defence 1.067 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.917 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 0.993. Data: 72 Bahia games / 72 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 44% | Draw 28% | Atletico Paranaense 27%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Atletico Paranaense 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 30% | Atletico Paranaense 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 44% | Draw 28% | Atletico Paranaense 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Bahia 1.32 / Atletico Paranaense 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.897 / def 1.067 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.917 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.321 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Bahia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Atletico Paranaense xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Bahia 1 - 1 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 44% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bahia and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (5 meetings): Bahia 3W | Draws 1 | Atletico Paranaense 1W.
What form are Bahia and Atletico Paranaense in?
Bahia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bahia's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Atletico Paranaense's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (0.92x) against Bahia's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
44%
2.25
28%
3.52
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.29
0.97
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
7%
13.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bahia and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Bahia and 0.97 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 25W 15D 32L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Atletico Paranaense's form line: 25W 21D 26L from 72 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Bahia against 1.33 for Atletico Paranaense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bahia have posted 1.69 PPG from 36 outings (18W 7D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Atletico Paranaense have gone 8W 10D 18L from 36 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bahia are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.22 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 25W 15D 32L in their last 72 games (1.25 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 25W 21D 26L in their last 72 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Bahia's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.69 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Paranaense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Bahia
2
Draws
1
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Atletico Paranaense?
From 7 meetings on record, Bahia have won 4, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2026, when Bahia 3-0 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Atletico Paranaense?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 47%, Atletico Paranaense 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bahia) and 33% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Atletico Paranaense in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bahia's recent matches and 47% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bahia's recent games and 33% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia and Atletico Paranaense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia and Atletico Paranaense finished level at 1-1 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.32 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.97 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against Atletico Paranaense attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 44% | Draw 28% | Atletico Paranaense 27%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 51%, Atletico Paranaense 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.25 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.