Avai 1-2 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Avai at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avai vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Avai host Juventude at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 May 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventude have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Juventude's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avai 1.80 xG and Juventude 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avai attack 1.063 / defence 1.169 | Juventude attack 0.996 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 0.918. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Avai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Avai games / 43 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avai 55% | Draw 23% | Juventude 22%. Fair-value odds: Avai 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Juventude 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Avai (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Avai at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avai vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avai 55% | Draw 23% | Juventude 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Avai 1.80 / Juventude 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Avai attack 1.063 / def 1.169 | Juventude attack 0.996 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.366 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Avai (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Avai xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Juventude xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avai vs Juventude kick off?
Avai vs Juventude kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What was the final score in Avai vs Juventude?
Avai 1 - 2 Juventude.
Where is Avai vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What competition is Avai vs Juventude part of?
Avai vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Avai vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Avai a 55% chance of winning, Juventude a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Avai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avai vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Avai and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Avai vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Juventude?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Avai and Juventude in?
Juventude (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Juventude away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Avai's attack at 1.06x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Avai's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avai Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.33
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Avai xG
Total xG
2.87
1.07
Juventude xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
4%
27.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avai vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Avai and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Avai and 1.07 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Avai vs Juventude?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avai
Pre-Season
Juventude
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Avai
1
Draws
1
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Juventude?
From 2 meetings on record, Avai have won 0, Juventude have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Avai and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2022, when Juventude 1-1 Avai.
Who has won more matches between Avai and Juventude?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avai home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Juventude defy the odds to beat Avai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Avai 1-2 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avai 1.80 xG and Juventude 1.07 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Avai fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Juventude outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avai attack 1.06 / defence 1.17 against Juventude attack 1.00 / defence 1.24, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avai 55% | Draw 23% | Juventude 22%, with Avai to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Juventude win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.