Avai 3-2 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Avai at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avai vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Fortaleza EC travel to Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva to take on Avai. The game is scheduled for Thursday 16 June 2022, 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortaleza EC stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fortaleza EC away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avai 1.39 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avai attack 0.950 / defence 1.233 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.030 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 0.982. Data: 11 Avai games / 49 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avai 39% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 32%. Fair-value odds: Avai 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Fortaleza EC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Avai as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Avai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avai vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jun 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avai 39% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Avai 1.39 / Fortaleza EC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Avai attack 0.950 / def 1.233 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.030 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.261 / away 0.982 • Poisson stance: Avai (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Avai xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Fortaleza EC xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avai vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Avai vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 16 June 2022 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What was the final score in Avai vs Fortaleza EC?
Avai 3 - 2 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Avai vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What competition is Avai vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Avai vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Avai vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Avai a 39% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Avai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avai vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Avai and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Avai vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Fortaleza EC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Avai and Fortaleza EC in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Fortaleza EC away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Avai's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Fortaleza EC's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Avai's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avai Win
39%
2.57
29%
3.48
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Avai xG
Total xG
2.63
1.25
Fortaleza EC xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avai vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Avai and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Avai and 1.25 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Avai vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avai
Pre-Season
Fortaleza EC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Avai and Fortaleza EC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Avai
0
Draws
1
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Fortaleza EC?
From 2 meetings on record, Avai have won 1, Fortaleza EC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Avai and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2022, when Fortaleza EC 2-0 Avai.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avai home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Avai edge out Fortaleza EC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avai beat Fortaleza EC 3-2 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avai 1.39 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Avai beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avai attack 0.95 / defence 1.23 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.03 / defence 1.16, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avai 39% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 32%, with Avai to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.