Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense host Flamengo at Arena da Baixada in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atletico Paranaense — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atletico Paranaense's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Arena da Baixada this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena da Baixada. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Atletico Paranaense are significantly better at Arena da Baixada than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atletico Paranaense at 1.40 PPG versus Flamengo's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 2 for Flamengo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 0–5 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Atletico Paranaense trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Flamengo trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 46% versus Flamengo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 45% | Flamengo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.62 xG and Flamengo 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.110 / defence 0.869 | Flamengo attack 1.027 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.134. Data: 41 Atletico Paranaense games / 41 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 51% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 23%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Flamengo 4.35. Atletico Paranaense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Paranaense 50% | Flamengo 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 51% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.62 / Flamengo 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.110 / def 0.869 | Flamengo attack 1.027 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Flamengo xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Atletico Paranaense 2 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 51% chance of winning, Flamengo a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo?
Record (4 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 1W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 2W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atletico Paranaense's attack rating (1.11) and Flamengo's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
51%
1.95
25%
3.98
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.63
1.01
Flamengo xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
5%
21.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.01 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 29W 18D 29L from 76 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 39W 16D 21L across 76 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atletico Paranaense on 1.38 PPG, Flamengo on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 19W 11D 8L from 38 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Atletico Paranaense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Flamengo's away record stands at 15W 12D 11L across 38 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.70 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 29W 18D 29L in their last 76 games (1.38 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 39W 16D 21L in their last 76 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Flamengo away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.79 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Flamengo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Flamengo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atletico Paranaense's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Atletico Paranaense
3
Draws
3
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo?
From 9 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 3, Flamengo have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 53%, Flamengo 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Atletico Paranaense) and 55% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Atletico Paranaense's games and 63% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 55% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Paranaense edge out Flamengo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Flamengo 2-1 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.62 xG and Flamengo 1.01 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.11 / defence 0.87 against Flamengo attack 1.03 / defence 1.04, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 51% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 23%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 45%, Flamengo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.38 PPG, Flamengo 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Paranaense win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.