Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Cuiaba travel to Arena da Baixada to take on Atletico Paranaense. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 December 2021, 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico Paranaense stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atletico Paranaense have posted 3W 2D 5L at Arena da Baixada — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cuiaba's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Atletico Paranaense) versus 1.20 (Cuiaba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 1 for Cuiaba and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Cuiaba winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Atletico Paranaense in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 46% versus Cuiaba 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 51% | Cuiaba 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 0.91 xG and Cuiaba 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.901 / defence 1.370 | Cuiaba attack 0.828 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 0.926. Data: 35 Atletico Paranaense games / 35 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 30% | Draw 32% | Cuiaba 38%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Cuiaba 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Paranaense 40% | Cuiaba 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 30% | Draw 32% | Cuiaba 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Atletico Paranaense 0.91 / Cuiaba 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.901 / def 1.370 | Cuiaba attack 0.828 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.002 / away 0.926 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Cuiaba xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Cuiaba kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Cuiaba kicked off at 22:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Cuiaba?
Atletico Paranaense 1 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Cuiaba part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 30% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Cuiaba?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 0W | Draws 0 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Cuiaba in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atletico Paranaense's attack rating (0.90) and Cuiaba's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
30%
3.29
32%
3.16
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
1.96
1.05
Cuiaba xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
15%
6.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 14.8 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.05 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Atletico Paranaense have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 12W 6D 17L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Cuiaba's form line: 9W 16D 10L from 35 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atletico Paranaense on 1.20 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Atletico Paranaense have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L).
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 3W 10D 4L from 17 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.91 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Cuiaba in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 12W 6D 17L in their last 35 games (1.20 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 9W 16D 10L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Cuiaba away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.47 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Atletico Paranaense have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2024, when Atletico Paranaense won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atletico Paranaense's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Atletico Paranaense
1
Draws
2
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 5, Cuiaba have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Cuiaba?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 59%, Cuiaba 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Atletico Paranaense) and 35% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba in 47%; Atletico Paranaense have failed to score in 35% of games; Cuiaba in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 41% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 35% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atletico Paranaense defy the odds to beat Cuiaba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Cuiaba 1-0 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 0.91 xG and Cuiaba 1.05 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cuiaba landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 0.90 / defence 1.37 against Cuiaba attack 0.83 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 30% | Draw 32% | Cuiaba 38%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Atletico Paranaense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 51%, Cuiaba 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Cuiaba's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.20 PPG, Cuiaba 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Paranaense win broke the near-deadlock. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.