Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 77%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Coritiba travel to Arena da Baixada to take on Atletico Paranaense. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022, 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atletico Paranaense — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Atletico Paranaense's home record at Arena da Baixada: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Atletico Paranaense are significantly better at Arena da Baixada than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Coritiba have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Coritiba have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atletico Paranaense at 1.10 PPG versus Coritiba's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 0 for Coritiba and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2022, ended 1–0 with Atletico Paranaense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Atletico Paranaense in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Coritiba in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 47% versus Coritiba 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 37% | Coritiba 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 2.41 xG and Coritiba 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.089 / defence 0.944 | Coritiba attack 0.710 / defence 1.690. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 0.925. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.690 — this is suppressing Atletico Paranaense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Atletico Paranaense games / 30 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 77% | Draw 16% | Coritiba 7%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 1.30 | Draw 6.25 | Coritiba 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Paranaense (77%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Paranaense are the pick at 77% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Paranaense 60% | Coritiba 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 77% | Draw 16% | Coritiba 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 42% | xG Atletico Paranaense 2.41 / Coritiba 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.089 / def 0.944 | Coritiba attack 0.710 / def 1.690 | league avg home 1.310 / away 0.925 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Coritiba xG
42%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
Atletico Paranaense 1 - 0 Coritiba.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 77% chance of winning, Coritiba a 7% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 1W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 0W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Coritiba (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atletico Paranaense's attack at 1.09x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 1.69x — combine the two and it projects 2.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
77%
1.30
16%
6.41
7%
13.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
3 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
3.03
0.62
Coritiba xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.41
16%
Draw
13.37
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
9%
11.15
Win to Nil
41%
2.42
1%
149.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.62 for Coritiba, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Atletico Paranaense have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 13W 9D 8L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Coritiba's form line: 10W 4D 16L from 30 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Atletico Paranaense are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coritiba.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atletico Paranaense have posted 2.14 PPG from 14 outings (8W 6D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Atletico Paranaense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Coritiba have gone 0W 2D 12L from 14 away games — 0.14 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.03 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
Coritiba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 13W 9D 8L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 10W 4D 16L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Coritiba away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 2.14 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.14 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Coritiba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Coritiba in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atletico Paranaense's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Atletico Paranaense
0
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba?
From 5 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 4, Coritiba have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 57%, Coritiba 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Atletico Paranaense) and 57% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Coritiba in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 50% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 57% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Paranaense edge out Coritiba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Coritiba 1-0 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 2.41 xG and Coritiba 0.62 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Paranaense fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against Coritiba attack 0.71 / defence 1.69, drawn from 69/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 77% | Draw 16% | Coritiba 7%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 37%, Coritiba 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Coritiba's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Paranaense arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Coritiba (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.