Atletico Paranaense 3-0 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 37%, yet in-form Botafogo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena da Baixada plays host to Atletico Paranaense versus Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Sunday 13 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Atletico Paranaense (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atletico Paranaense at Arena da Baixada this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Atletico Paranaense are significantly better at Arena da Baixada than their overall form suggests.
Botafogo have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Botafogo have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Botafogo are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Atletico Paranaense 0W, Botafogo 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 0–2 with Botafogo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Atletico Paranaense half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Botafogo half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 49% versus Botafogo 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico Paranaense 40% | Botafogo 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.27 xG and Botafogo 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.074 / defence 1.070 | Botafogo attack 1.183 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.000. Data: 75 Atletico Paranaense games / 37 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 37% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 37%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Botafogo 2.70. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Paranaense 60% | Botafogo 40%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 37% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.27 / Botafogo 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.074 / def 1.070 | Botafogo attack 1.183 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Draw (27%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Botafogo xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
Atletico Paranaense 3 - 0 Botafogo.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 37% chance of winning, Botafogo a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 0W | Draws 0 | Botafogo 1W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Botafogo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atletico Paranaense's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (1.18x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
37%
2.73
27%
3.73
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.53
1.27
Botafogo xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
10%
9.68
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.27 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Atletico Paranaense have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 15W 10D 12L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Botafogo's form line: 15W 8D 14L from 37 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Atletico Paranaense against 1.43 for Botafogo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Atletico Paranaense have posted 2.00 PPG from 18 outings (10W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Atletico Paranaense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Botafogo have gone 9W 4D 5L from 18 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.11 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 15W 10D 12L in their last 37 games (1.49 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 15W 8D 14L in their last 37 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Botafogo away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 2.00 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Botafogo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 29 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Paranaense won 3-0 on 13 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Paranaense have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Botafogo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Atletico Paranaense
2
Draws
2
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo?
From 7 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 3, Botafogo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 4-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 56%, Botafogo 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Atletico Paranaense) and 39% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Botafogo in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 44% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 39% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atletico Paranaense run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Botafogo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Botafogo 3-0 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.27 xG and Botafogo 1.27 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Botafogo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.07 / defence 1.07 against Botafogo attack 1.18 / defence 0.88, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 37% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 37%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 40%, Botafogo 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Botafogo's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.49 PPG, Botafogo 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Paranaense win broke the near-deadlock. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.