Atletico Goianiense 2-0 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Goianiense at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Goianiense vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atletico Goianiense host Coritiba at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 May 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico Goianiense have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Atletico Goianiense's home record at Estádio Antônio Accioly: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 1.26 xG and Coritiba 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.765 / defence 0.983 | Coritiba attack 1.000 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 0.914. Atletico Goianiense's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Atletico Goianiense games / 6 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 45% | Draw 29% | Coritiba 27%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Coritiba 3.70. Atletico Goianiense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Goianiense at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Goianiense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 45% | Draw 29% | Coritiba 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Atletico Goianiense 1.26 / Coritiba 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.765 / def 0.983 | Coritiba attack 1.000 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.380 / away 0.914 • Poisson stance: Atletico Goianiense (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Coritiba xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Coritiba kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Coritiba kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Coritiba?
Atletico Goianiense 2 - 0 Coritiba.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Coritiba part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 45% chance of winning, Coritiba a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atletico Goianiense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Coritiba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Coritiba in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Atletico Goianiense home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atletico Goianiense's attack rating (0.77) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Atletico Goianiense's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Goianiense Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.46
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
2.15
0.90
Coritiba xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
8%
13.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 0.90 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Atletico Goianiense
0
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Coritiba?
From 2 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 1, Coritiba have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2022, when Coritiba 2-0 Atletico Goianiense.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Atletico Goianiense cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Goianiense beat Coritiba 2-0 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 1.26 xG and Coritiba 0.90 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Coritiba landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.77 / defence 0.98 against Coritiba attack 1.00 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 45% | Draw 29% | Coritiba 27%, with Atletico Goianiense to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.