Zulte Waregem 0-3 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem host St. Truiden at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zulte Waregem stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Elindus Arena, Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Zulte Waregem are significantly better at Elindus Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden away from home this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St. Truiden are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Zulte Waregem have won 1, St. Truiden 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with St. Truiden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 60% versus St. Truiden 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 60% | St. Truiden 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 0.78 xG and St. Truiden 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.884 / defence 1.283 | St. Truiden attack 0.714 / defence 0.601. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.381. St. Truiden's defence strength of 0.601 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Zulte Waregem games / 42 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 23% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 48%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | St. Truiden 2.08. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 50% | St. Truiden 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 23% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Zulte Waregem 0.78 / St. Truiden 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.884 / def 1.283 | St. Truiden attack 0.714 / def 0.601 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.26
St. Truiden xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Zulte Waregem 0 - 3 St. Truiden.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden part of?
Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 23% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden?
Record (2 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.60x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
23%
4.37
29%
3.42
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.04
1.26
St. Truiden xG
4.37
23%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
6%
15.50
22%
4.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 16.4 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.26 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 42 games, going 9W 10D 23L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.45 PPG from 42 outings (17W 10D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 6W 4D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, St. Truiden have taken 1.57 points per game from 21 outings (9W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.17 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 9W 10D 23L in their last 42 games (0.88 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 17W 10D 15L in their last 42 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or St. Truiden away?
St. Truiden's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.05 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
St. Truiden go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when St. Truiden won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
5
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, St. Truiden have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when St. Truiden 3-2 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 62%, St. Truiden 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Zulte Waregem) and 24% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 52%; St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 33% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 24% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St. Truiden run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Zulte Waregem 0-3 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 0.78 xG and St. Truiden 1.26 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.88 / defence 1.28 against St. Truiden attack 0.71 / defence 0.60, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 23% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 48%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 60%, St. Truiden 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St. Truiden's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.