Zulte Waregem 2-1 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zulte Waregem (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zulte Waregem face Dender.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem host Dender at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Group - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zulte Waregem — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Elindus Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dender stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dender's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Zulte Waregem carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Zulte Waregem: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Dender, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Zulte Waregem winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Zulte Waregem and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Dender in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 62% and Dender 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 59% | Dender 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.15 xG and Dender 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.852 / defence 1.068 | Dender attack 0.769 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Data: 30 Zulte Waregem games / 60 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 37% | Draw 29% | Dender 34%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Dender 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zulte Waregem are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Zulte Waregem 50% | Dender 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Group - 36 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 37% | Draw 29% | Dender 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.15 / Dender 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.852 / def 1.068 | Dender attack 0.769 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Dender xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Dender kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Dender kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Dender?
Zulte Waregem 2 - 1 Dender.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Dender part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Dender is a Relegation Group - 36 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 37% chance of winning, Dender a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Dender?
Record (5 meetings): Zulte Waregem 3W | Draws 2 | Dender 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Dender in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Dender (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (0.85) and Dender's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
37%
2.69
29%
3.47
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.23
1.08
Dender xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.08 for Dender, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 64 games, going 30W 15D 19L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Dender sit at 0.84 PPG from 64 outings (12W 18D 34L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Zulte Waregem carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Dender — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 18W 5D 8L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Dender have taken 0.74 points per game from 31 outings (5W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.08 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
Dender
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Dender in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 30W 15D 19L in their last 64 games (1.64 PPG), while Dender have gone 12W 18D 34L in their last 64 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Dender away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.90 PPG; Dender away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Zulte Waregem go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Zulte Waregem won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Dender specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
0
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Dender?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 4, Dender have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Zulte Waregem 2-1 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Dender?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 58%, Dender 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Zulte Waregem) and 61% (Dender). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dender in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Dender?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Zulte Waregem's games and 64% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 61% of Dender's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Dender tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dender in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zulte Waregem edge out Dender 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Dender 2-1 at Elindus Arena, Relegation Group - 36, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.15 xG and Dender 1.08 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Dender attack 0.77 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 37% | Draw 29% | Dender 34%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 59%, Dender 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Dender's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.