Zulte Waregem 3-2 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Anderlecht at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Anderlecht make the trip to Elindus Arena to face Zulte Waregem in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Thursday 20 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Zulte Waregem's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's home record at Elindus Arena: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Anderlecht (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Anderlecht have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Anderlecht are 0.80 PPG clear of Zulte Waregem in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zulte Waregem lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Anderlecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 59% versus Anderlecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 61% | Anderlecht 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.18 xG and Anderlecht 2.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.871 / defence 1.520 | Anderlecht attack 1.140 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.447. Data: 46 Zulte Waregem games / 46 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 16% | Draw 18% | Anderlecht 66%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 6.25 | Draw 5.56 | Anderlecht 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Anderlecht (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.18 / 2.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.68 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 50% | Anderlecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 16% | Draw 18% | Anderlecht 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 63% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.18 / Anderlecht 2.51 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.871 / def 1.520 | Anderlecht attack 1.140 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
2.51
Anderlecht xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 20 October 2022 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Zulte Waregem 3 - 2 Anderlecht.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 16% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 66% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht?
Record (2 meetings): Zulte Waregem 0W | Draws 0 | Anderlecht 2W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (1.14x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 2.51.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
16%
6.22
18%
5.69
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
7.9%
Away win
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.68
2.51
Anderlecht xG
6.22
16%
Home win
5.69
18%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
8%
12.26
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
1%
76.17
20%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 2.51 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 10W 10D 26L from 46 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 22W 12D 12L across 46 games — 1.70 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Anderlecht by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zulte Waregem heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 6W 4D 12L from 22 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 10W 5D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.85 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 10W 10D 26L in their last 46 games (0.87 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 22W 12D 12L in their last 46 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Anderlecht away?
Anderlecht's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.00 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
3
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 3, Anderlecht have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Zulte Waregem 2-4 Anderlecht.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 59%, Anderlecht 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Zulte Waregem and 64% for Anderlecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 50% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 64% of Anderlecht's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zulte Waregem defy the odds to beat Anderlecht 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Anderlecht 3-2 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.18 xG and Anderlecht 2.51 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.87 / defence 1.52 against Anderlecht attack 1.14 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 16% | Draw 18% | Anderlecht 66%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Zulte Waregem win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 61%, Anderlecht 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Anderlecht's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Zulte Waregem winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. Anderlecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.