Union St. Gilloise 2-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (64%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Union St. Gilloise face St. Truiden.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St. Truiden make the trip to Stade Joseph Mariën to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 2 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union St. Gilloise's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
St. Truiden's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Union St. Gilloise's favour (2.40 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with St. Truiden managing 0 and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Union St. Gilloise 0–0 St. Truiden — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Union St. Gilloise an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 59% versus St. Truiden 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 59% | St. Truiden 48%). Note also that St. Truiden surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Union St. Gilloise recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.23 xG and St. Truiden 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.151 / defence 0.868 | St. Truiden attack 0.992 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.091. St. Truiden's defence rating of 1.284 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union St. Gilloise's projected output up. Data: built from Union St. Gilloise's last 53 games and St. Truiden's last 53.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 64% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 12%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.56 | Draw 4.24 | St. Truiden 8.17. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (64%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Union St. Gilloise's last 10 home games and St. Truiden's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union St. Gilloise 40% (last 10 home games) | St. Truiden 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 2 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 64% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.23 / St. Truiden 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.151 / def 0.868 | St. Truiden attack 0.992 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.94
St. Truiden xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden FAQs
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 64% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (0.99x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Union St. Gilloise's last 53 games and St. Truiden's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
64%
1.56
24%
4.24
12%
8.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.17
0.94
St. Truiden xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
8.17
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
11%
9.26
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
1%
75.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.94 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 35W 19D 9L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
St. Truiden's form line: 18W 22D 23L from 63 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against St. Truiden.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.16 PPG from their last 31 home games (20W 7D 4L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 5W 10D 16L from their last 31 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.22 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 60%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
Union St. Gilloise (Home) vs St. Truiden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden Form FAQs
What form are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 35W 19D 9L in their last 63 games (1.97 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 18W 22D 23L in their last 63 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or St. Truiden away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.16 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 2 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won St. Truiden 0-4 Union St. Gilloise on 8 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, St. Truiden have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 September 2026: St. Truiden 0-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 61%, St. Truiden 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Union St. Gilloise and 58% for St. Truiden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; St. Truiden in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 61% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 58% of St. Truiden's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 74% of St. Truiden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out St. Truiden 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat St. Truiden 2-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.23 xG and St. Truiden 0.94 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.15 / defence 0.87 against St. Truiden attack 0.99 / defence 1.28, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 64% | Draw 24% | St. Truiden 12%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 59%, St. Truiden 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
St. Truiden's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.