Union St. Gilloise 1-2 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Antwerp travel to Stade Joseph Mariën to take on Union St. Gilloise. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 5W 1D 2L from 8 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 3W 0D 1L at Stade Joseph Mariën — 2.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Mariën. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antwerp stand at 4W 2D 2L from 8 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.75 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.12 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Antwerp have posted 2W 1D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.75 PPG. They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union St. Gilloise at 2.00 PPG versus Antwerp's 1.75. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Antwerp trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 50% and Antwerp 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 62% | Antwerp 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.70 xG and Antwerp 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.231 / defence 0.841 | Antwerp attack 1.050 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.518. Data: 8 Union St. Gilloise games / 8 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 46% | Draw 24% | Antwerp 30%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Antwerp 3.33. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 25% | Antwerp 75%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 46% | Draw 24% | Antwerp 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.70 / Antwerp 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.231 / def 0.841 | Antwerp attack 1.050 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.518 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Antwerp xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 2 Antwerp.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 46% chance of winning, Antwerp a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Antwerp (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 2.12 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.23x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.22
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.04
1.34
Antwerp xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
6%
17.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.34 for Antwerp, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 5W 1D 2L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp's form line: 4W 2D 2L from 8 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union St. Gilloise on 2.00 PPG, Antwerp on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L).
On the road, Antwerp have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 2.12 scored and 1.50 conceded. Antwerp's attacking output running into Union St. Gilloise's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Antwerp in 75%.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Antwerp away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.25 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Antwerp in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
3
Draws
1
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Antwerp have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 25%, Antwerp 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union St. Gilloise) and 50% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 75% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 50% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Antwerp tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antwerp defy the odds to beat Union St. Gilloise 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Union St. Gilloise 1-2 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.70 xG and Antwerp 1.34 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.23 / defence 0.84 against Antwerp attack 1.05 / defence 1.16, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 46% | Draw 24% | Antwerp 30%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Antwerp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 62%, Antwerp 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Antwerp's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.00 PPG, Antwerp 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.