St. Truiden 0-4 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union St. Gilloise make the trip to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to face St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 October 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: St. Truiden 0W, Union St. Gilloise 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 44% versus Union St. Gilloise 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 40% | Union St. Gilloise 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.29 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.826 / defence 0.833 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.189 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.303. Data: 43 St. Truiden games / 43 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 34% | Draw 31% | Union St. Gilloise 34%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Union St. Gilloise 2.94. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 20% | Union St. Gilloise 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 34% | Draw 31% | Union St. Gilloise 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG St. Truiden 1.29 / Union St. Gilloise 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.826 / def 0.833 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.189 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Union St. Gilloise xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
St. Truiden 0 - 4 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 34% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (2 meetings): St. Truiden 0W | Draws 1 | Union St. Gilloise 1W.
What form are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.19x) against St. Truiden's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
34%
2.90
31%
3.22
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.58
1.29
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.29 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 14W 13D 16L from 43 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 28W 8D 7L across 43 games — 2.14 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 8W 4D 9L from 21 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 14W 5D 2L across 21 trips, a 2.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
St. Truiden are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.05 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise in 67%.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 14W 13D 16L in their last 43 games (1.28 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 28W 8D 7L in their last 43 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.33 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when St. Truiden 2-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 33%, Union St. Gilloise 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (St. Truiden) and 62% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 76% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of St. Truiden's recent games and 62% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 0-4 hammering of St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat St. Truiden 0-4 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.29 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.29 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. St. Truiden fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.29 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.83 / defence 0.83 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.19 / defence 1.02, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 34% | Draw 31% | Union St. Gilloise 34%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 40%, Union St. Gilloise 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.