St. Truiden 0-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Antwerp travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to take on St. Truiden. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 April 2023, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Antwerp — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Antwerp's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Antwerp are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. St. Truiden's 30% rate and Antwerp's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for St. Truiden, 1 for Antwerp and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Antwerp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
St. Truiden trading profile (67 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Antwerp trading profile (67 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 49% versus Antwerp 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 46% | Antwerp 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.06 xG and Antwerp 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.992 / defence 0.862 | Antwerp attack 0.986 / defence 0.667. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.312. Antwerp's defence strength of 0.667 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 67 St. Truiden games / 67 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 33% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 35%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Antwerp 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 30% | Antwerp 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 33% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG St. Truiden 1.06 / Antwerp 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.992 / def 0.862 | Antwerp attack 0.986 / def 0.667 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Antwerp xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Antwerp kick off?
St. Truiden vs Antwerp kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
St. Truiden 0 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is St. Truiden vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Antwerp part of?
St. Truiden vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 33% chance of winning, Antwerp a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both St. Truiden and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
Record (3 meetings): St. Truiden 1W | Draws 1 | Antwerp 1W.
What form are St. Truiden and Antwerp in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Antwerp (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Antwerp's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
33%
3.06
32%
3.11
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.18
1.11
Antwerp xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
11%
9.33
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.11 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 26W 15D 26L from 67 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 39W 11D 17L across 67 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antwerp by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 12W 7D 13L from 32 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 17W 5D 10L across 32 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.57 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Antwerp in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 26W 15D 26L in their last 67 games (1.39 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 39W 11D 17L in their last 67 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Antwerp away?
Antwerp's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.34 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.75 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Antwerp in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Antwerp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Antwerp won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Antwerp have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Antwerp 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 56%, Antwerp 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (St. Truiden) and 41% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 41% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of St. Truiden's recent games and 41% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Antwerp tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antwerp edge out St. Truiden 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat St. Truiden 0-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.06 xG and Antwerp 1.11 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.99 / defence 0.86 against Antwerp attack 0.99 / defence 0.67, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 33% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 35%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 46%, Antwerp 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antwerp's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.