St. Truiden 0-2 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Anderlecht (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St. Truiden face Anderlecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Anderlecht travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to take on St. Truiden. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 December 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
St. Truiden — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Anderlecht — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. St. Truiden register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Anderlecht in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Anderlecht have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 5 encounters against St. Truiden's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with Anderlecht winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Anderlecht have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 58% versus Anderlecht 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 47% | Anderlecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.21 xG and Anderlecht 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.002 / defence 1.122 | Anderlecht attack 1.278 / defence 0.712. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.004. Anderlecht's defence strength of 0.712 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Anderlecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 St. Truiden games / 47 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 28% | Draw 33% | Anderlecht 39%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Anderlecht 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 80% | Anderlecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 28% | Draw 33% | Anderlecht 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG St. Truiden 1.21 / Anderlecht 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.002 / def 1.122 | Anderlecht attack 1.278 / def 0.712 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.004 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Anderlecht xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Anderlecht kick off?
St. Truiden vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
St. Truiden 0 - 2 Anderlecht.
Where is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht part of?
St. Truiden vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 28% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both St. Truiden and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
Record (5 meetings): St. Truiden 0W | Draws 0 | Anderlecht 5W.
What form are St. Truiden and Anderlecht in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St. Truiden's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
28%
3.57
33%
3.00
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.65
1.44
Anderlecht xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
7%
15.05
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.44 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden come into this having played 57 games, going 17W 20D 20L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Anderlecht sit at 1.88 PPG from 57 outings (30W 17D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
St. Truiden's home form reads 13W 10D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Anderlecht have taken 1.46 points per game from 28 outings (10W 11D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Anderlecht's season.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.79 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 17W 20D 20L in their last 57 games (1.25 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 30W 17D 10L in their last 57 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Anderlecht away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.75 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.46 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Anderlecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
1
Draws
8
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 1, Anderlecht have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Anderlecht 3-1 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 57%, Anderlecht 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (St. Truiden) and 61% (Anderlecht).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Anderlecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of St. Truiden's games and 71% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of St. Truiden's recent games and 61% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Anderlecht tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Anderlecht cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat St. Truiden 0-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.21 xG and Anderlecht 1.44 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. St. Truiden fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Anderlecht attack 1.28 / defence 0.71, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 28% | Draw 33% | Anderlecht 39%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 47%, Anderlecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Anderlecht's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Anderlecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.