SK Beveren vs Antwerp – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Freethiel Stadion plays host to SK Beveren versus Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 3 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SK Beveren have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SK Beveren have posted 8W 0D 2L at Freethiel Stadion — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethiel Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Antwerp's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Antwerp have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for SK Beveren, 1.00 for Antwerp — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SK Beveren lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Antwerp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Antwerp — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 52% versus Antwerp 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 64% | Antwerp 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.84 xG and Antwerp 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.862 / defence 1.000 | Antwerp attack 0.828 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.343. Data: 10 SK Beveren games / 40 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 54% | Draw 23% | Antwerp 23%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Antwerp 4.35. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: SK Beveren 30% | Antwerp 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 54% | Draw 23% | Antwerp 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG SK Beveren 1.84 / Antwerp 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.862 / def 1.000 | Antwerp attack 0.828 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Antwerp xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Antwerp kick off?
SK Beveren vs Antwerp is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at Freethiel Stadion.
Where is SK Beveren vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Antwerp part of?
SK Beveren vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 54% chance of winning, Antwerp a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SK Beveren and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Antwerp?
Record (1 meetings): SK Beveren 0W | Draws 0 | Antwerp 1W.
What form are SK Beveren and Antwerp in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Antwerp (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SK Beveren's attack at 0.86x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.83x) against SK Beveren's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.39
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.95
1.11
Antwerp xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
4%
27.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.11 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SK Beveren come into this having played 42 games, going 31W 5D 6L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.14 PPG from 42 outings (14W 6D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.19 PPG clear of Antwerp — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SK Beveren's home form reads 18W 1D 2L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (6W 2D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Beveren are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.19 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Antwerp in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 31W 5D 6L in their last 42 games (2.33 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 14W 6D 22L in their last 42 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Antwerp away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.62 PPG; Antwerp away: 0.95 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Antwerp in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since August 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
SK Beveren
0
Draws
1
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Antwerp?
From 1 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 0, Antwerp have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Antwerp 2-1 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 43%, Antwerp 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SK Beveren) and 48% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Antwerp in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 33% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of SK Beveren's recent games and 48% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Antwerp tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.