Seraing United 1-3 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seraing United vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Charleroi make the trip to Stade du Pairay to face Seraing United in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 22 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Seraing United have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Seraing United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Seraing United at Stade du Pairay this season: 3W 0D 2L from 5 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Seraing United are significantly better at Stade du Pairay than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 0L across 5 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Seraing United against 1.40 for Charleroi. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Seraing United have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Charleroi in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Seraing United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seraing United 54% versus Charleroi 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seraing United 73% | Charleroi 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seraing United 1.69 xG and Charleroi 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seraing United attack 1.153 / defence 1.091 | Charleroi attack 1.092 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.416. Data: 11 Seraing United games / 11 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seraing United 39% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 39%. Fair-value odds: Seraing United 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Charleroi 2.56. The draw (23%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 23% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Seraing United 60% | Charleroi 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seraing United vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade du Pairay • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seraing United 39% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Seraing United 1.69 / Charleroi 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Seraing United attack 1.153 / def 1.091 | Charleroi attack 1.092 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Draw (23%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Seraing United xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Charleroi xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seraing United vs Charleroi kick off?
Seraing United vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Stade du Pairay.
What was the final score in Seraing United vs Charleroi?
Seraing United 1 - 3 Charleroi.
Where is Seraing United vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pairay.
What competition is Seraing United vs Charleroi part of?
Seraing United vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Seraing United vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Seraing United a 39% chance of winning, Charleroi a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Seraing United vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Seraing United and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Seraing United vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seraing United and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Seraing United and Charleroi in?
Seraing United (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Seraing United's attack rating (1.15) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.09x) against Seraing United's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
39%
2.59
23%
4.40
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Seraing United xG
Total xG
3.37
1.69
Charleroi xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
7%
14.02
7%
13.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seraing United vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Seraing United and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Seraing United and 1.69 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Seraing United vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Seraing United have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 4W 0D 7L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Seraing United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi's form line: 4W 5D 2L from 11 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Charleroi are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Seraing United.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Seraing United have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Seraing United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Seraing United are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.73 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seraing United
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seraing United and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Seraing United have gone 4W 0D 7L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seraing United at home or Charleroi away?
Seraing United's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seraing United at home: 1.80 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Charleroi have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charleroi won 3-0 on 11 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Seraing United have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Seraing United
0
Draws
4
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seraing United and Charleroi?
From 4 meetings on record, Seraing United have won 0, Charleroi have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Seraing United and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Charleroi 3-0 Seraing United.
Who has won more matches between Seraing United and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Seraing United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Seraing United, 80% for Charleroi — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Seraing United and 80% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seraing United home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seraing United play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Seraing United's games and 80% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Seraing United vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Seraing United's matches and 80% of Charleroi's.
Do Seraing United and Charleroi tend to score early?
Seraing United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Seraing United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Seraing United 1-3 at Stade du Pairay, Regular Season - 12, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seraing United 1.69 xG and Charleroi 1.69 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Charleroi outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seraing United attack 1.15 / defence 1.09 against Charleroi attack 1.09 / defence 1.18, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seraing United 39% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 39%, with Seraing United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seraing United 73%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seraing United's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Seraing United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.