RWDM 0-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RWDM at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this RWDM vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Edmond Machtensstadion plays host to RWDM versus Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RWDM have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM at Edmond Machtensstadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — RWDM are significantly better at Edmond Machtensstadion than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for RWDM, 1 for Charleroi and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
RWDM half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RWDM 68% and Charleroi 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RWDM 62% | Charleroi 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 1.45 xG and Charleroi 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 0.822 / defence 1.133 | Charleroi attack 0.730 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.306. Data: 15 RWDM games / 48 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RWDM 43% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 26%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Charleroi 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RWDM at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RWDM if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: RWDM 60% | Charleroi 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Edmond Machtensstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 43% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG RWDM 1.45 / Charleroi 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 0.822 / def 1.133 | Charleroi attack 0.730 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: RWDM (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Charleroi xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RWDM vs Charleroi kick off?
RWDM vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What was the final score in RWDM vs Charleroi?
RWDM 0 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is RWDM vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtensstadion.
What competition is RWDM vs Charleroi part of?
RWDM vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 43% chance of winning, Charleroi a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making RWDM the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both RWDM and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will RWDM vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Charleroi?
Record (1 meetings): RWDM 0W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 1W.
What form are RWDM and Charleroi in?
RWDM (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates RWDM's attack at 0.82x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.73x) against RWDM's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 15/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RWDM Win
43%
2.31
31%
3.23
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
RWDM xG
Total xG
2.53
1.08
Charleroi xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
6%
16.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are RWDM and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for RWDM and 1.08 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
RWDM come into this having played 47 games, going 25W 11D 11L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.30 PPG from 47 outings (17W 10D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RWDM carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Charleroi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
RWDM's home form reads 14W 6D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 1.13 points per game from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RWDM are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.26 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RWDM have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RWDM and Charleroi in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 25W 11D 11L in their last 47 games (1.83 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RWDM at home or Charleroi away?
RWDM's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RWDM at home: 2.09 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RWDM have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
RWDM
2
Draws
2
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Charleroi?
From 4 meetings on record, RWDM have won 0, Charleroi have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when RWDM 1-3 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between RWDM and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RWDM 61%, Charleroi 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (RWDM) and 56% (Charleroi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RWDM keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Charleroi in 30%; Charleroi in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RWDM play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of RWDM's games and 56% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RWDM vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of RWDM's matches and 56% of Charleroi's.
Do RWDM and Charleroi tend to score early?
RWDM have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at RWDM's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Edmond Machtensstadion, Regular Season - 16, as RWDM and Charleroi drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.45 xG and Charleroi 1.08 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. RWDM fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Charleroi landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against Charleroi attack 0.73 / defence 1.09, drawn from 15/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 43% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 26%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 62%, Charleroi 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RWDM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.