Genk 0-0 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Gent encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Genk welcome Gent to Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 23 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Genk have gone 8W 1D 1L — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Genk have posted 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Genk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gent stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Gent's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 7D 2L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Genk are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Genk, 1 for Gent and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Genk 2–0 Gent — a Genk win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Genk trading profile (last 67 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Gent trading profile (last 67 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 51% versus Gent 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 55% | Gent 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.79 xG and Gent 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.219 / defence 0.757 | Gent attack 0.941 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.158. Genk have a tight defence (rating 0.757), which is pulling Gent's projected output down. Data: built from Genk's last 56 games and Gent's last 56.
Result probabilities: Genk 58% | Draw 27% | Gent 15%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Gent 6.77. The model has a clear lean to Genk (58%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genk 40% (last 10 home games) | Gent 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 58% | Draw 27% | Gent 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Genk 1.79 / Gent 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.219 / def 0.757 | Gent attack 0.941 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Genk (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Gent xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs Gent FAQs
What time does Genk vs Gent kick off?
Genk vs Gent kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Gent?
Genk 0 - 0 Gent.
Where is Genk vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Gent part of?
Genk vs Gent is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 58% chance of winning, Gent a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Genk and Gent will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Genk vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genk's attack rating (1.22) and Gent's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gent's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 56 games and Gent's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
58%
1.72
27%
3.70
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Genk xG
Total xG
2.62
0.82
Gent xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
26%
3.92
2%
40.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs Gent Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Genk and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Genk and 0.82 for Gent, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Gent?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genk's recent record stands at 35W 15D 17L from 67 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Gent, meanwhile, have gone 31W 21D 15L across 67 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genk on 1.79 PPG, Gent on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Genk have managed 21W 8D 5L from their last 34 home games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gent's away record stands at 13W 12D 9L across their last 34 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genk are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.78 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Gent
Blended
Genk (Home) vs Gent (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Genk vs Gent Form FAQs
What form are Genk and Gent in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 35W 15D 17L in their last 67 games (1.79 PPG), while Gent have gone 31W 21D 15L in their last 67 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Gent away?
Genk's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.09 PPG; Gent away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Genk or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Gent in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Mar 2025, when Genk won Genk 4-0 Gent.
Genk's record when hosting Gent specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Genk
5
Draws
1
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs Gent H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Gent?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 4, Gent have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Gent last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Genk 1-1 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Gent?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 41%, Gent 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Genk) and 41% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Gent in 38%; Gent in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs Gent Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and Gent matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Genk's recent matches and 47% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genk and Gent matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Genk's recent games and 41% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Gent matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Genk's recent matches and 62% of Gent's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 27, as Genk and Gent drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.79 xG and Gent 0.82 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genk fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Gent landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.22 / defence 0.76 against Gent attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 58% | Draw 27% | Gent 15%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 55%, Gent 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gent's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.79 PPG, Gent 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.