Genk 4-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genk and Charleroi meet at Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 November 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk at Cegeka Arena this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Charleroi (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Genk's 2.80 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Charleroi's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Genk have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Charleroi in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 60% versus Charleroi 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 62% | Charleroi 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 2.52 xG and Charleroi 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.389 / defence 0.779 | Charleroi attack 0.945 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.459. Genk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — their λ of 2.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Genk's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Genk games / 49 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 69% | Draw 17% | Charleroi 14%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.45 | Draw 5.88 | Charleroi 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Genk (69%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.52 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genk as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genk 70% | Charleroi 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 69% | Draw 17% | Charleroi 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 61% | xG Genk 2.52 / Charleroi 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.389 / def 0.779 | Charleroi attack 0.945 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Genk (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Charleroi xG
61%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Charleroi kick off?
Genk vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Genk 4 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Genk vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Charleroi part of?
Genk vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 69% chance of winning, Charleroi a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Genk and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genk and Charleroi in?
Genk (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genk's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.52. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.94x) against Genk's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.7%), 1-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
69%
1.46
17%
5.87
14%
7.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Genk xG
Total xG
3.59
1.07
Charleroi xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.87
17%
Draw
7.02
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
8%
12.40
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
1%
87.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Genk and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Genk and 1.07 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Genk have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 31W 9D 15L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi's form line: 23W 11D 21L from 55 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charleroi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.26 PPG from 27 outings (19W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Genk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 12W 4D 11L from 27 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.56 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 31W 9D 15L in their last 55 games (1.85 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 23W 11D 21L in their last 55 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Charleroi away?
Genk's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.26 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-1 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
5
Draws
2
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Charleroi have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Charleroi?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 56%, Charleroi 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Genk and 74% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Genk's games and 56% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Genk's matches and 74% of Charleroi's.
Do Genk and Charleroi tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Genk run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Charleroi 4-1 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 2.52 xG and Charleroi 1.07 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Genk beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.39 / defence 0.78 against Charleroi attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 69% | Draw 17% | Charleroi 14%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 62%, Charleroi 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points. Genk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.37 average — above their attacking norm. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.