Dender 0-0 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dender vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dender and Union St. Gilloise meet at DENDER Football Complex in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 July 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dender have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Dender haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at DENDER Football Complex, Dender have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DENDER Football Complex.
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Union St. Gilloise haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Dender's favour (1.90 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Dender half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dender 60% and Union St. Gilloise 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 53% | Union St. Gilloise 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.20 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.116 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.158. Data: 0 Dender games / 30 Union St. Gilloise games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dender 30% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 43%. Fair-value odds: Dender 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Union St. Gilloise 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dender (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Dender 40% | Union St. Gilloise 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: DENDER Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 30% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Dender 1.20 / Union St. Gilloise 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.116 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Union St. Gilloise xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Dender vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at DENDER Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Union St. Gilloise?
Dender 0 - 0 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Dender vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at DENDER Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Dender vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 30% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dender and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dender and Union St. Gilloise in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Dender (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dender's attack rating (0.85) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.12x) against Dender's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
30%
3.32
27%
3.76
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Dender xG
Total xG
2.68
1.49
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
7%
14.69
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dender and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Dender and 1.49 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dender's recent record stands at 15W 9D 6L from 30 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. Dender haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 4L across 30 games — 2.07 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. Union St. Gilloise haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for Dender against 2.07 for Union St. Gilloise. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dender have managed 7W 5D 3L from 15 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 8W 5D 2L across 15 trips, a 1.93 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dender are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.93 scored and 1.03 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dender have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Union St. Gilloise in 73%.
Defensively: Dender have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Pre-Season
Union St. Gilloise
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 15W 9D 6L in their last 30 games (1.80 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 18W 8D 4L in their last 30 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.73 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Dender or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dender have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 4-1 on 1 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dender have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dender
1
Draws
3
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Union St. Gilloise?
From 4 meetings on record, Dender have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Dender, 73% for Union St. Gilloise — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Dender) and 60% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dender keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Dender's games and 73% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dender vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Dender's matches and 60% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Dender and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dender's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DENDER Football Complex, Regular Season - 1, as Dender and Union St. Gilloise drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.20 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.49 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dender fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 30% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 43%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 53%, Union St. Gilloise 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dender 1.80 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.