Charleroi 0-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Union St. Gilloise's 2.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Charleroi's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Charleroi, 1 for Union St. Gilloise and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–4 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 41% versus Union St. Gilloise 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 56% | Union St. Gilloise 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 0.69 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.827 / defence 0.973 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.282 / defence 0.728. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.382. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.728 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Charleroi games / 27 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 14% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 62%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 7.14 | Draw 4.35 | Union St. Gilloise 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 20% | Union St. Gilloise 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 14% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 41% | xG Charleroi 0.69 / Union St. Gilloise 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.827 / def 0.973 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.282 / def 0.728 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Union St. Gilloise xG
41%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Charleroi 0 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 14% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 62% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (1 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 1W.
What form are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.69. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.3%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
14%
6.90
23%
4.31
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.3%
Away win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.41
1.72
Union St. Gilloise xG
6.90
14%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
50%
1.99
Win to Nil
3%
38.70
31%
3.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.72 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 12W 7D 8L from 27 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 19W 3D 5L across 27 games — 2.22 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 5W 4D 4L from 13 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 10W 2D 1L across 13 trips, a 2.46 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.19 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Union St. Gilloise in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 12W 7D 8L in their last 27 games (1.59 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 19W 3D 5L in their last 27 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.46 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.46 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Charleroi
1
Draws
9
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Charleroi 1-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 31%, Union St. Gilloise 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Charleroi) and 62% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 54%; Charleroi have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Charleroi's recent matches and 46% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Charleroi's recent games and 62% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Charleroi 0-3 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 0.69 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.72 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.28 / defence 0.73, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 14% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 62%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 56%, Union St. Gilloise 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.59. Form held, and they took the win. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.