Charleroi 1-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 39. Kick-off: Tuesday 19 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 3W 1D 6L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
OH Leuven (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, OH Leuven have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Charleroi, 1.10 for OH Leuven — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Charleroi, 3 for OH Leuven and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 8 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Charleroi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 53% versus OH Leuven 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 44% | OH Leuven 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.41 xG and OH Leuven 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.997 / defence 1.138 | OH Leuven attack 0.933 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Data: 60 Charleroi games / 60 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 37% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 37%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | OH Leuven 2.70. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | OH Leuven 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Group - 39 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 37% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Charleroi 1.41 / OH Leuven 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.997 / def 1.138 | OH Leuven attack 0.933 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.40
OH Leuven xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs OH Leuven kick off?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 19 May 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Charleroi 1 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is Charleroi vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs OH Leuven part of?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven is a Conference League Group - 39 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 37% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Charleroi and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
Record (8 meetings): Charleroi 2W | Draws 3 | OH Leuven 3W.
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.00x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (0.93x) against Charleroi's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
37%
2.67
25%
3.96
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.81
1.40
OH Leuven xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
9%
10.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Charleroi and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.40 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 78 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 30W 18D 30L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
OH Leuven's form line: 19W 27D 32L from 78 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Charleroi against 1.08 for OH Leuven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.58 PPG from 38 outings (17W 9D 12L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 7W 11D 20L from 38 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.01 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 78 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
OH Leuven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 30W 18D 30L in their last 78 games (1.38 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 19W 27D 32L in their last 78 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or OH Leuven away?
Charleroi's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.58 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 53%, OH Leuven 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Charleroi) and 42% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; OH Leuven in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play OH Leuven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Charleroi's recent matches and 47% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Charleroi's recent games and 42% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and OH Leuven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Group - 39, as Charleroi and OH Leuven drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.41 xG and OH Leuven 1.40 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.00 / defence 1.14 against OH Leuven attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 37% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 37%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 37%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 44%, OH Leuven 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
OH Leuven's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.38 PPG, OH Leuven 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.