Cercle Brugge 1-1 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union St. Gilloise make the trip to Jan Breydelstadion to face Cercle Brugge in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Wednesday 18 January 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cercle Brugge's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cercle Brugge's home record at Jan Breydelstadion: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cercle Brugge have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Union St. Gilloise in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cercle Brugge, 1 for Union St. Gilloise and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cercle Brugge goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cercle Brugge 59% versus Union St. Gilloise 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 48% | Union St. Gilloise 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 1.46 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 0.985 / defence 0.911 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.522 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.350. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.522 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Cercle Brugge games / 54 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 30% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 47%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | Union St. Gilloise 2.13. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Cercle Brugge 60% | Union St. Gilloise 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 30% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Cercle Brugge 1.46 / Union St. Gilloise 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 0.985 / def 0.911 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.522 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Union St. Gilloise xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 18 January 2023 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise?
Cercle Brugge 1 - 1 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 30% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Cercle Brugge and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (1 meetings): Cercle Brugge 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 1W.
What form are Cercle Brugge and Union St. Gilloise in?
Cercle Brugge (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cercle Brugge's attack at 0.98x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.52x) against Cercle Brugge's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
30%
3.30
22%
4.46
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
3.34
1.87
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
15%
6.51
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
5%
21.50
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.87 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cercle Brugge come into this having played 54 games, going 19W 14D 21L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union St. Gilloise sit at 2.17 PPG from 54 outings (36W 9D 9L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Cercle Brugge — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cercle Brugge's home form reads 10W 7D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Union St. Gilloise have taken 2.42 points per game from 26 outings (20W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.09 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cercle Brugge and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 36W 9D 9L in their last 54 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 1.42 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Cercle Brugge or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cercle Brugge have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cercle Brugge have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Cercle Brugge
3
Draws
5
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Cercle Brugge have won 2, Union St. Gilloise have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Cercle Brugge 1-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Cercle Brugge and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cercle Brugge 54%, Union St. Gilloise 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cercle Brugge) and 69% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 38%; Cercle Brugge have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cercle Brugge play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cercle Brugge's recent matches and 54% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Cercle Brugge's matches and 69% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Cercle Brugge and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Cercle Brugge have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cercle Brugge and Union St. Gilloise share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cercle Brugge and Union St. Gilloise finished level at 1-1 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.46 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.87 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.52 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 30% | Draw 22% | Union St. Gilloise 47%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 48%, Union St. Gilloise 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.