Cercle Brugge 0-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden meet at Jan Breydelstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cercle Brugge's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Cercle Brugge have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden have collected 0.80 PPG across 5 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 3L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Cercle Brugge have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, St. Truiden in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Cercle Brugge — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cercle Brugge 80% and St. Truiden 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 40% | St. Truiden 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 1.02 xG and St. Truiden 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 0.873 / defence 1.191 | St. Truiden attack 0.671 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.600. Data: 5 Cercle Brugge games / 5 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 29% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 42%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | St. Truiden 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cercle Brugge 80% | St. Truiden 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 29% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Cercle Brugge 1.02 / St. Truiden 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 0.873 / def 1.191 | St. Truiden attack 0.671 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.600 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.28
St. Truiden xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Cercle Brugge 0 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden part of?
Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 29% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden in?
Cercle Brugge (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cercle Brugge's attack at 0.87x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (0.67x) against Cercle Brugge's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
29%
3.44
29%
3.45
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.30
1.28
St. Truiden xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
8%
12.37
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.28 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cercle Brugge's recent record stands at 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Cercle Brugge against 0.80 for St. Truiden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cercle Brugge have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; St. Truiden in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cercle Brugge won 4-1 on 4 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cercle Brugge have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cercle Brugge
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Cercle Brugge have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when St. Truiden 2-1 Cercle Brugge.
Who has won more matches between Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden?
Cercle Brugge have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Cercle Brugge, 60% for St. Truiden — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cercle Brugge) and 60% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cercle Brugge play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Cercle Brugge's games and 60% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cercle Brugge's recent games and 60% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Cercle Brugge have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Cercle Brugge 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Cercle Brugge 0-1 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.02 xG and St. Truiden 1.28 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cercle Brugge fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against St. Truiden attack 0.67 / defence 1.08, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 29% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 42%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 40%, St. Truiden 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
St. Truiden's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.00 PPG, St. Truiden 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. Cercle Brugge managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. St. Truiden conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.