Cercle Brugge 1-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cercle Brugge at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Anderlecht travel to Jan Breydelstadion to take on Cercle Brugge. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 July 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cercle Brugge stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cercle Brugge have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Jan Breydelstadion, Cercle Brugge have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Cercle Brugge are significantly better at Jan Breydelstadion than their overall form suggests.
Anderlecht — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Anderlecht have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Anderlecht have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Anderlecht's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cercle Brugge's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Cercle Brugge in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Anderlecht in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cercle Brugge 60% versus Anderlecht 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 49% | Anderlecht 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 1.45 xG and Anderlecht 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 1.014 / defence 0.976 | Anderlecht attack 1.104 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.188. Data: 35 Cercle Brugge games / 35 Anderlecht games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 41% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 33%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Anderlecht 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cercle Brugge are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Anderlecht (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cercle Brugge 50% | Anderlecht 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 41% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Cercle Brugge 1.45 / Anderlecht 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 1.014 / def 0.976 | Anderlecht attack 1.104 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Anderlecht xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht?
Cercle Brugge 1 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht part of?
Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 41% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cercle Brugge and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Anderlecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cercle Brugge and Anderlecht in?
Cercle Brugge (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cercle Brugge's attack rating (1.01) and Anderlecht's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Cercle Brugge's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
41%
2.43
26%
3.92
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.73
1.28
Anderlecht xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
8%
12.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.28 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Cercle Brugge have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 12W 9D 14L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Anderlecht's form line: 18W 11D 6L from 35 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Anderlecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Anderlecht are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cercle Brugge.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cercle Brugge have posted 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 8W 5D 4L from 17 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.94 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cercle Brugge have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Early Season
Anderlecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cercle Brugge and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 12W 9D 14L in their last 35 games (1.29 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 18W 11D 6L in their last 35 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or Anderlecht away?
Anderlecht's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 1.29 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Cercle Brugge or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cercle Brugge have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cercle Brugge and Anderlecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Anderlecht won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cercle Brugge's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Cercle Brugge
1
Draws
7
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Cercle Brugge have won 2, Anderlecht have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Anderlecht 2-3 Cercle Brugge.
Who has won more matches between Cercle Brugge and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cercle Brugge 53%, Anderlecht 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cercle Brugge) and 59% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cercle Brugge play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cercle Brugge's recent matches and 47% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cercle Brugge's recent games and 59% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cercle Brugge and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Cercle Brugge have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cercle Brugge edge out Anderlecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cercle Brugge beat Anderlecht 1-0 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.45 xG and Anderlecht 1.28 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Anderlecht landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Anderlecht attack 1.10 / defence 0.91, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 41% | Draw 26% | Anderlecht 33%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 49%, Anderlecht 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Anderlecht's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Cercle Brugge winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.