AS Eupen 1-5 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Eupen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Zulte Waregem travel to Stadion am Kehrweg to take on AS Eupen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Eupen stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AS Eupen's home record at Stadion am Kehrweg: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — AS Eupen are significantly better at Stadion am Kehrweg than their overall form suggests.
Zulte Waregem — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Zulte Waregem's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AS Eupen 0.80 PPG, Zulte Waregem 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for AS Eupen, 1 for Zulte Waregem and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 5–5 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AS Eupen in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 56% versus Zulte Waregem 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 56% | Zulte Waregem 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.94 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.926 / defence 1.259 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.056 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.289. Zulte Waregem bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing AS Eupen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 AS Eupen games / 66 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 43% | Draw 23% | Zulte Waregem 34%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Zulte Waregem 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Eupen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Eupen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 70% | Zulte Waregem 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 43% | Draw 23% | Zulte Waregem 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG AS Eupen 1.94 / Zulte Waregem 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.926 / def 1.259 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.056 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: AS Eupen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Zulte Waregem xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem?
AS Eupen 1 - 5 Zulte Waregem.
Where is AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem part of?
AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 43% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AS Eupen the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem?
Record (3 meetings): AS Eupen 0W | Draws 2 | Zulte Waregem 1W.
What form are AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AS Eupen's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Zulte Waregem's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Eupen Win
43%
2.32
23%
4.40
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
3.66
1.71
Zulte Waregem xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.42
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
8%
12.86
5%
20.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.71 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Eupen's recent record stands at 15W 15D 36L from 66 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 13W 17D 36L across 66 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Eupen on 0.91 PPG, Zulte Waregem on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AS Eupen have managed 8W 8D 17L from 33 games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 5W 9D 19L across 33 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
AS Eupen are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.29 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 62%.
Last 66 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Current Season
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 15W 15D 36L in their last 66 games (0.91 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 13W 17D 36L in their last 66 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Zulte Waregem away?
AS Eupen's home record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.97 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zulte Waregem have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Zulte Waregem won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Eupen's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
AS Eupen
2
Draws
4
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 0, Zulte Waregem have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Zulte Waregem 3-2 AS Eupen.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 61%, Zulte Waregem 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (AS Eupen) and 58% (Zulte Waregem).
On the defensive side: AS Eupen have failed to score in 33% of games; Zulte Waregem in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of AS Eupen's games and 61% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of AS Eupen's recent games and 58% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zulte Waregem run riot with a 1-5 hammering of AS Eupen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat AS Eupen 1-5 at Stadion am Kehrweg, Regular Season - 33, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.94 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.71 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. AS Eupen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Zulte Waregem outscored their 1.71 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.93 / defence 1.26 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.06 / defence 1.30, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 43% | Draw 23% | Zulte Waregem 34%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 56%, Zulte Waregem 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Eupen 0.91 PPG, Zulte Waregem 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. AS Eupen (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.